Moments ago the University of Michigan released the latest "report card" on Bidenomics, and to nobody's surprise - except perhaps a certain senile teleprompter reading, diaper-wearing puppet in the White House - it was another disaster.
One month after the May Consumer Sentiment printed at a record 7-sigma miss to expectations, consumer sentiment once again "unexpectedly" slumped, this time from an upward revised 68.8 to 67.6, the lowest print since last November, and the biggest 3-month drop in sentiment (-13.8 points) going back to the covid lockdowns.
... which was not only a 5-sigma miss to the median estimate (an improvement from last month's 7-sigma)...
... but also the biggest miss of 2024.
The collapse in sentiment was broad based, and hammered both current conditions - which plunged from 69.6 to 62.5, the lowest since 2022 and badly missing estimates of 72.2 - and also expectations, which dropped from 68.8 to 67.6 (and also far below the 72.0 estimate).
The decline in sentiment coincides with signs that the labor market, which has driven consumer spending over the last year, is also falling apart. The unemployment rate rose to 4% last month, the highest in more than two years, while jobless claims unexpectedly soared following a firing frenzy out of California.
“While lower-income families have, as a group, seen notable wage gains in a strong labor market, their budgets remain tight amid continued high prices even as inflation has slowed,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.
But wait there's more, because if that was the "stag" part of the report, the UMich report also confirmed that the "flation" isn't far behind, as the inflation outlook continued its recent deterioration, to wit: 1 Year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.3%, beating estimates of a drop back 3.2%, while 5-10 Year inflation expectations rose from 3.0% to 3.1%, the highest since November.
If that wasn't enough, the slide in sentiment suggests restrained consumer demand in coming months. The university’s measure of buying conditions for durable goods decreased to the lowest level since December 2022, a glowing testament to just how tapped out the US consumer truly is.
In short: the verdict for Bidenomics is in, and it's a complete disaster, as for Powell's recent laughable comment that he can't see the "stag" nor the "flation"... well, Fed chair, they just bit you on the ass.
