Ugly Canadian CPI, surging crude prices (early - on Azerbaijan angst)), mixed housing data, and a trigger happy group of traders anxiously awaiting tomorrow's Fed-sponsored narrative all sparked some chaotic moves in markets today.
The headline-making market of the day is USTs today with a double-barf sending yields 5-7bps higher on the day...
Source: Bloomberg
Which pushed yields to their highest since 2007...
Source: Bloomberg
With bonds at their cheapest to stocks since Oct 2007...
Source: Bloomberg
At the very short-end of the curve, the market has really started to embrace the 'higher for longer' narrative as this year's rate-change expectations have drifted (dovishly) lower (less expectations of more rate-hikes) while next year's rate-change expectations have surged (hawkishly) higher, pricing out expectations of rate-cuts...
Source: Bloomberg
All of which pressured stocks lower - especially longer-duration assets. After Europe closed, the algos tried to lift the major indices back to unch but failed. All the major indices closed red (down 02. to 0.3% on the day)...
CART IPO'd at $30, opened at $42, rallied up to $42.95 before fading the rest of the day...
ARM fell back below its post-IPO opening price...
Regional banks keep falling - now back at SVB tumble lows...
The dollar chopped around but ended back in the very tight range of the last couple of days...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin bounced back above $27,000...
Source: Bloomberg
Gold (spot) neared $1940 intraday, but ended unchanged...
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices pumped (to new cycle highs) and dumped (WTI finding support at $90) to end practically unchanged...
Finally, with real yields hitting fresh highs, one wonders when reality hits for equity valuations?
Source: Bloomberg
Consider what kind of shift (down) in real yields it would take to rationalize this valuation (economic depression?)
