Bonds & Bullion Bid; Crude, Crypto, & Mega-Cap Skid Ahead Of Fed/BoJ

With gamma 'unclenched' (and now solidly negative), markets have been free to roam...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Source: SpotGamma

And today saw more downward pressure as trader anxiety built ahead of the major macro catalysts and the fact that approximately 40% of the S&P 500 is expected to report this week across all sectors making it the biggest and perhaps one of the most important weeks of earnings this season.

Nasdaq was the biggest loser (again) today with Small Caps and The Dow managing gains (as tech weighed on the S&P 500 too). The last few minutes of the day-session (before MSFT) saw a panic-bid hit the major indices (but it didn't last long)...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Nasdaq has almost perfectly recoupled with Russell 2000 YTD now...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman's trading desk noted that overall volumes and S&P top of book both muted heading into MSFT EPS post close and FOMC + BOJ tomorrow.

  • Floor skewed 2% better to buy today after similar buy skews yday.

  • LOs selling Tech vs buying Hcare and Fins.

  • HFs much better for sale across Tech and Hcare vs buying consumer discretionary.

The basket of MAG7 stocks tumbled back to last week's Global Outage spike lows....

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Source: Bloomberg

UBS' trading desk offered some additional color:

"today more than half of the selling is short looking at our Hedge Fund flow (35/32/33 - buy/sell/short sell)."

'Most Shorted' stocks were slammed...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Source: Bloomberg

Semis were slammed again today - back to an interestingly coincidental drawdown level from the past year...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Source: Bloomberg

S&P is hovering around its 50DMA...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

...while Nasdaq has tumbled down to its its 100DMA and found support...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Much of today's plunge was triggered by the ubiquitous leaks from BoJ...

1. BOJ leaks some more hawkish jibberish (it owns half of all JGBs, rates simply can not rise)

2. Yen spikes

3. Carry trades hammered

4. Tech crushed

And sure enough they tumbled together...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended unchanged, with the BoJ leaked comments erasing the overnight gains in the greenback...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ignored the dollar and extended gains, spiking on the Israeli airstrikes headlines...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were bid (as traders saw through the HL JOLTS data) with the short-end outperforming (2Y -4bps, 30Y -2bps). That small rally pushed all yields lower on the week...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Source: Bloomberg

...but expectations for a Fed rate-cut this week are practically zero...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin extended yesterday's losses, testing a $65,000 handle (after briefly tagging $70k yesterday...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the total market-cap of the Magnificent 7 stocks tumbled back below $15 trillion today (down over $2 trillion from its record highs) - in context, that is just a two-month low...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Source: Bloomberg

Another ugly day for NVDA today (down 6.5%)...

bonds bullion bid crude crypto mega cap skid ahead of fed boj

Source: Bloomberg

...but of course, we will see what MSFT has to say about that tonight.

Authored by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge July 30th 2024