Since the US election, the bond market foresees higher inflation, while fixing swaps have marked up CPI expectations from the second quarter of next year.
Since yields started rising in mid-September on a greater likelihood of a Trump win, about two-thirds of the rise was driven by real yields, and the rest by inflation breakevens. Since the election though – when a Trump win became a certainty – all of the rise in nominal yields has been driven by breakevens (note that the scales in the two panels of the chart below are different).
