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Chicago PMI Plummets Near COVID Lows As Small Biz/CEO Confidence Soars

MNI's Chicago PMI survey plunged back near COVID lockdown lows in December, falling to a very contraction-y 36.9 (below the lowest analyst estimate of 40)...

chicago pmi plummets near covid lows as small biz ceo confidence soars

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, it was uniformly ugly...

  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

  • New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

  • Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

  • Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

  • Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

  • Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

This tumble in survey sentiment fits with the overall slump in 'soft' data since Trump was elected...

chicago pmi plummets near covid lows as small biz ceo confidence soars

Source: Bloomberg

...which is odd given the small business and CEO - large business - confidence has exploded higher since his election)...

chicago pmi plummets near covid lows as small biz ceo confidence soars

Source: Bloomberg

Does make one wonder just who the local Fed surveys are asking?

chicago pmi plummets near covid lows as small biz ceo confidence soars

Source: Bloomberg

Partisan PMIs?

via December 30th 2024