After dropping to its lowest since 2022 in May, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence headline print was expected to rebound in June and it did significantly - up to 109.7 from 102.5 (vs 104.0 exp) to its highest since Jan 2022.
The group’s gauge of current conditions rose to 155.3 - its highest since July 2021. A measure of expectations - which reflects consumers’ six-month outlook - rose to 79.3.
Source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile, May's results show consumer inflation expectations over the next 12 months dropped to 6.00% - its lowest since Dec 2020...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the Conference Board's measure of labor market tightness eased slightly last month (more jobs plentiful vs hard-to-get)...
Source: Bloomberg
Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board noted that “greater confidence was most evident among consumers under age 35, and consumers earning incomes over $35,000. Nonetheless, the expectations gauge continued to signal consumers anticipating a recession at some point over the next 6 to 12 months.”
Consumers’ assessments of their current situation reflect largely healthy family finances in June.
28.5% of consumers say their current family financial situation is “good,” down slightly from 29.2% in May.
18.2% say their current family finances are “bad,” down from 19.5%.
However, buying plans for cars, homes and major appliances slowed, which the Conference Board said may reflect higher borrowing costs.
The share of consumers who reported intentions to take a vacation in the next six months fell.
“Although the expectations Index remained a hair below the threshold signaling recession ahead, a new measure found considerably fewer consumers now expect a recession in the next 12 months compared to May,” said Dana Peterson, the chief economist at the Conference Board. 69.3% of consumers say a recession is “somewhat” or “very likely,” down from 73.2% in May....
So good news for The Fed that inflation expectations are lower, but is that enough to maintain the 'pause'?
