The headline consumer price index was unchanged MoM in May - the smallest change since July 2022 - just less than the +0.1% MoM expected. On a YoY basis, headline CPI rose 3.3% (less than the 3.4% exp) - but very much stuck in a range well above the 2% target for over year now...
Source: Bloomberg
Energy was the biggest drag on the headline CPI MoM...
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) pulling the YoY change down to 3.4% (from 3.6% and below the 3.5% exp). That is the lowest Core CPI YoY since April 2021...
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI has not had a down-month since President Biden was elected.
Core Services inflation slowed notably MoM...
Source: Bloomberg
More than offsetting a decline in gasoline, the index for shelter rose in May, up 0.4 percent for the fourth consecutive month.
May Shelter inflation 5.41% YoY, down from 5.55% in April and lowest since April 2022
May Rent inflation 5.30% YoY, down from 5.44% and lowest since May 2022
Source: Bloomberg
The full breakdown...
Services INflation remains awkwardly stuck above 5% while Goods DEflation is at its weakest since January 2004...
Source: Bloomberg
SuperCore CPI fell 0.05% MoM - its first drop since Sept 2021, but that left the YoY level still above 5.0%...
Source: Bloomberg
Transportation Services costs tumbled MoM to drag SuperCore lower MoM...
Source: Bloomberg
We note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden's term began (July 2022 and May 2024 was the closest with 'unchanged'), which leaves overall prices up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed (compares with +8% during Trump's term).
And prices have never been more expensive...
Source: Bloomberg
That is an average of 5.4% per annum (more than triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump's term).
Finally, while the 'flations' have broadly tracked M2 lower, we note that M2 YoY is now starting to turn back higher once again...
Source: Bloomberg
Will the next President and Fed head face a 70s redux?
Source: Bloomberg
And is this guaranteed if Powell decides "insurance" cuts are required (for Biden?)
