With the November elections less than five months ago, the market has been amazingly complacent and oblivious about the potential shock that, frankly, either presidency would unleash. But that's about to change.
As Goldman trader John Flood warns in a weekend note, the results of the upcoming US presidential election could have a substantial impact on the USD and the relative performance of domestic-facing vs. internationally-exposed firms. The first presidential debate is scheduled for this Thursday, June 27th.
Meanwhile, online prediction markets imply slightly higher odds of a Trump presidency than a Biden presidency, with the probability of a Republication sweep (42%) almost twice the odds of a Democratic sweep (22%)...
