By Mark Wilson, Goldman trader and managing director
1. Its been a volatile start to the year with limited directional clarity, but plenty of trading activity: Tuesday was Nasdaq’s largest volume day in history, 13.4BN shares traded; Tuesday also was a record trading in US stocks with prices <$1 (typically associated with speculative retail activity) as a %age of total volume.
Our central macro views for 2025 hinge on our forecasts for above consensus US GDP, below consensus inflation, ongoing Fed cuts (albeit now 1 less this year than pre-NFP forecast, in June & Dec), alongside a weaker than consensus GDP outcome in Europe, but weaker than forecast inflation & more ECB cuts than priced. Against that forecast backdrop, I'd suggest it's tough to be overly bearish equities. Nevertheless, year-to-date (and really since Powell's December meeting pivot to an explicit inflation focus), the move higher in yields is threatening to derail the equity narrative with US 10yr yields now well above the top of the 18mth down channel, through 2024 highs and approaching the cycle high of 5% from November 2023.
