Short week ahead with the S&P implied move at 4.4%. The main events this week will be China’s Q1 GDP and retail sales/industrial production for Mar (Tues night 4/15), Powell remarks at the economic club (wed 4/16), US retail Sales (Wed 4/16), and EPS: NFLX, BAC, C, JNJ, UAL, PGR, LVS, SCHW, DHI, etc.
Focus today was the US tariff exemptions on key electronics (semi chips, smartphones, computers, consumer tech) although Trump did post that “that nobody, least of all China, would be “off the hook” on tariffs” and that tariffs on semiconductors will be in place in the not so distance future.
In retrospect it proved to be beneficial, if maybe not to the extent that many had expected. As Goldman's Mike Washington writes, it was a "calm start to the week with news flow fairly positive with Trump’s pausing import duties on a range of consumer electronics (AAPL +4% with 80%+ of its iPhones are sourced from China) + reports that the administration is looking to grant tariff exemptions to parts of the auto industry (F and GM squeezed +4%) + Fed Governor *WALLER: IF THREAT OF RECESSION, WOULD FAVOR RATE CUTS SOONER (BBG)." (ZH: as noted earlier, the latest NY Fed survey showed that there is no threat of stagflation, but there is a looming threat of recession).
