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Goldman's Best Post-Payrolls Trades, And Why The Bank Sees "A 30% Probability Of 10%+ Drawdown Over The Next 3 Months"

By Paolo Schiavone, Goldman FICC and Equities trader

Historically, episodes of higher term premia, severe inequality, and market concentration have led to increased realized volatility. For higher volatility you need risk asset contagion from higher risk premia

The political landscape suggests that people are rejecting extremes and actively voting against them. Monetary policy accommodation and excess liquidity have created an imbalance between wage and asset inflation. It is not central banks (CBs) or governments driving tighter financial conditions, but rather the market itself in an effort to address these imbalances.

via January 10th 2025