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Hartnett: "The US Is Now One Bad Payroll Number Away From Recession

Starting in late 2024 and ever since, BofA's Michael Hartnett has been urging clients to get out of US stocks and to invest in BIG (Bonds, International stocks & Gold) instead (see "Michael Hartnett's Trades For 2025: "Go BIG In '25" in late 2024, and "Going Long The BIG Trade" more recently), and anyone who listened to him has done just great, completely oblivious to the turbulent meltdown taking place in the US tech sector which last week entered an official correction, as the following chart of BIG vs US stocks makes clear.

hartnett the us is now one bad payroll number away from recession

But while BIG continues to levitate, the same can not be said for US stocks which yesterday briefly dipped below their 200DMA for the first time since Oct 2023.

via March 8th 2025