Did we suddenly get a peak at reality?
The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits for the first time surged last week to 242k (up from 229k and well above the 225k exp). That is the highest since August 2023...
Source: Bloomberg
On an NSA basis, claims exploded higher.
The last three weeks have seen the largest surge in claims since January...
Source: Bloomberg
Notably this surge is very VERY similar to what we saw last year (but not the prior few years, so not a 'seasonal' pattern per se)...
Source: Bloomberg
The surge in NSA claims was driven by California...
Continuing claims also surged back above 1.8 million Americans to its highest level since January...
Source: Bloomberg
Is the government's data finally starting to catch up with reality?
Source: Bloomberg
Does The Fed suddenly "need" bad data to allow rate-cuts before the election?
