JPMorgan's chief commodity strategist, Natasha Kaneva, this morning published a lengthy and very important note (available to pro subs in the usual place), looking at the oil price supply and price "bridge" that is necessary to ensure that the world has enough oil investment - and enough oil - in 2030 and plug a shortfall of over 4 million barrels.
First, she finds that 2022 was the year when, for the first time, efficiency policies put into place more than a decade ago became visible in the data. Yet, unlike some other notable secular oil bears, she admits that she does not see peak oil demand on the horizon. Instead, as she calculates in a recent note titled "Long-Term Inventive Oil Price", the JPM analyst says that global oil demand is expected to reach 106.9 mbd in 2030, up 7.1 mbd compared with 2022 levels as demand be increasingly driven by petrochemicals and air travel at the expense of traditional oil products like gasoline, diesel and fuel oil.
Below we excerpt from the report's "Demand" section chronicling the shift from road fuels to petrochemicals:
