Inflation will be the main theme next week, with key prints including the US PCE, flash August CPIs in Europe, as well as the Tokyo CPI. Separately, DB's Galina Pozdnyakova reminds us that consumer confidence gauges and economic activity indicators are also due across the major economies. In earnings, the spotlight will be on Nvidia's results on Wednesday.
Starting with data in the US, the focus will be on the PCE inflation print on Friday, the last one ahead of the Fed's next decision on September 18. Our US economists see MoM growth in the core gauge staying at +0.2%, with both personal income
and consumption also growing at +0.2% MoM vs +0.2% and +0.3% in June, respectively. Other notable data releases include durable goods orders on Monday, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index on Tuesday, and the advance goods trade balance on Thursday.
Moving on to Europe, all eyes will be on the flash August CPIs starting with Germany and Spain on Thursday, with prints for France, Italy and the Eurozone due Friday, ahead of the ECB's next decision on September 12. Our European economics team forecast headline Eurozone HICP to drop to 2.2% YoY (2.6% in July) and core HICP to slow to 2.8% (2.9%). Across the main economies, they see HICP in Germany at 2.2% (2.6%), France at 2.1% (2.7%), Italy at 1.3% (1.6%) and Spain at 2.5% (2.9%).
