Featured

'Markets Remain Fragile & Shock Is Overdue' - BofA's Lessons From '24 To Remember In '25

BofA's Global Equity Derivatives Research desk take a detailed look under the hood at what happened in 2024 and what lessons we can learn - and apply - in 2025...

1. Think 2024 was a good year? It may only be the beginning

2. 2024 looked more like ‘96/’97 than ‘98/’99

3. In a bubble, leadership can last longer than you can stay underweight

4. But momentum + valuation already too rich to avoid a bust

5. VIX proved markets remain fragile & shock is overdue

6. Aug24 says buy dips & lock in vol spikes; use smarter 'SkeU' delta in '25

7. Rising debt + sticky inflation = bond vigilantes biggest visible macro tail risk

8. Fragility + faster reactions + valuations mean no 2017 vol repeat

9. Trump win ignited tariff risk; EU Dollar darlings = next trade targets?

10. EU cheap & unloved – don’t be caught short; Fewer crowds = less vol pain

11. China outperformance vs Japan in ‘24 could continue if US rates fall

12. VIX option intel shows positioning risks linger

13. EZ Bank divs beat NDX for half of the past year; hedge for ‘25 being different

14. YenMageddon says watch USDJPY driven Nikkei instability in ‘25

Here are some selected details from the report...

via December 29th 2024