Written by Morgan Stanley's European strategy team
What to expect? The upcoming parliamentary elections in France come with much uncertainty as the electoral system with two rounds makes results hard to predict. There is no certainty that after winning the EU elections by a wide margin, Rassemblement National (RN) will get a majority in the French National Assembly. This is only one of our four scenarios. As first polls stand, the probability that no majority emerges from the election appears also significant. We stress that a cohabitation would shift legislative power from the President to the Prime Minister. And we discuss that in most scenarios, the fiscal outlook is likely to deteriorate.
