By Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley
The tragedy unfolding in the Middle East understandably has captured the world’s attention. There has been no shortage of prognostication in the media about whether the conflict escalates, how other countries might get involved, and what the effects would be on the global economy and markets. Unsurprisingly, clients have been asking for our insights. As a student of geopolitics and a strategist whose practice relies on unraveling its complexities, what I can say with confidence is this: there’s no obvious path from here, so we must be humble and flexible in our thinking.
While this may not be the clear guidance you’re hoping for, let me suggest that accepting uncertainty itself can bring clarity. As we’ve discussed many times in our work on the transition to a multipolar world, geopolitical uncertainty has been on the rise for some time. Governments are implementing policies that buttress economic and national security, in the process rewiring global commerce to avoid empowering geopolitical rivals.
