By Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley
To project the impact of elections on the markets, we typically frame scenarios. But we could never have dreamed up the truly wild month we just went through.
It started on June 27 with President Biden’s unexpectedly weak debate performance, which hurt him in the polls and brought a crescendo of calls from Democrats for a change at the top of the ticket. Then came the assassination attempt on former President Trump, followed by the Republican convention. This past weekend we saw a nearly unprecedented event: a sitting president eligible for another term announced that he would not run for office. Then Vice President Harris quickly declared her candidacy and secured the delegate support she needed to become the presumptive Democratic nominee.
