By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
My Take on Putin/Trump today
Let's define a "good" deal from a global perspective:
Ukraine gives up occupied land (it could grow to entire oblast where Russia has a foothold, but that's getting dubious)
Ukraine has to have ability to rearm and be prepared for another attack in the future - ideally some sort of ability to have foreign troops (likely European if anyone) on soil
Control over the main power plant in Russia control - or some security that it remains operational and power directed to Ukraine
There is almost zero chance Putin agrees to anything like the above - if he does, will be good for risk assets across the globe
If Putin offers a bad deal - from almost none of the above to the weakest conditions on all of the above
If Trump accepts "bad" deal - brief rally (maybe) in risk assets and then a big resumption of flows out of US into rest of world markets
If Trump rejects "bad" deal and talks renewed support for Ukraine/sanctions on Russia - brief sell-off on war, but then I think we see U.S. Risk assets bounce
No deal, no timeline, markets fade a bit and cross their fingers that:
Fed is super dovish (doubt it)
Greer, maybe with Bessant takes over tariff planning and negotiations - would be good for risk assets - some signs that is occurring, but it's only been a day or two
For a different take, and one which explains why Putin has (so far) refused to play the ceasefire game, read this.
