US Macro data is on a charge higher in September, surging to its strongest since late-April...
Source: Bloomberg
September markets ended on a weaker note today - after China stimulus piled on top of the super-size rate-cut sent stocks soaring in the month. European stocks ended practically unchanged on the month, US stocks up marginally and China soared...
Source: Bloomberg
All the US Majors ended the month higher, led by Nasdaq 100 (with Small Caps lagging), but overall, while the rip off the early month lows is noteworthy, the month-end gains are modest at best given the massive easing....
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks and bonds took a hit today around 1400ET when Powell said that he "doesn't feel like The Fed is in a hurry to cut quickly."
Additionally, Powell said "sometimes people pay too much attention to The Fed's SEP [Dot Plot]," noting that the SEP shows two more 25bps cuts this year (less than the market).
That sent rate-cut expectations lower (hawkishly), with less than 3 cuts now priced in for 2024...
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks tumbled and yields jumped after those comments, but they remain notably decoupled on the month (10Y yield -10bps, S&P +2%)...
Source: Bloomberg
Bond-Stock correlation has flipped negative (after over a year positive) where bond gains have helped buffer stock losses
Source: Bloomberg
“It’s wise to be on high alert,” Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid put it nicely in his morning commentary today. “One small shock could move things very quickly.”
Energy names were September's biggest losers while Discretionary and Utes outperformed (an unusual combination of cyclical and defensives)...
Source: Bloomberg
While all stock indices were higher, so Treasury yields were lower across the board in September (with the short-end outperforming significantly) despite a decent surge higher in rates today (2Y +10bps)...
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve steepened dramatically in September with 2s10s dis-inverting notably (before flattening a little in the last few days)...
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar fell for the third straight month in September. Most of the pain was as inflation and payrolls data hit early in the month. Since then the dollar has oscillated sideways, amid the Fed cuts and China stimmies...
Source: Bloomberg
Gold rallied for the 7th month in the last 8 (and its best month since March)...
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices fell for the third straight month (September was the worst month for WTI since October 2023)...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin rallied in September (its best month since May)...
Source: Bloomberg
...as, finally, if M2 is to be believed, crypto is about to breakout...
Source: Bloomberg
What will The Fed do about soaring gold and crypto and USA sovereign risk spiking like Zimbabwe...
Source: Bloomberg
Has anyone else noticed this? Is this why The Fed cut rates?
