Saved By The Seasonals: Headline Spending Surprises As 'Real' Retail Sales Plunge

BofA's omnipotent analysts track record on retail sales looks to be tested once again with a worse than consensus forecast (for an already downbeat expected print) in June...

saved by the seasonals headline spending surprises as real retail sales plunge

BUT... for once they were wrong with retail sales far better than expected - though notably the headline print was unchanged Mom (-0.3% exp). but May was also revised higher from +0.,1% to +0.3% MoM. The YoY retail sales growth slowed to just 2.3% - the slowest since February...

saved by the seasonals headline spending surprises as real retail sales plunge

Source: Bloomberg

For context, May 2024's upward revision was the largest since May 2023...

saved by the seasonals headline spending surprises as real retail sales plunge

Source: Bloomberg

Core (Ex-Autos) retail sales soared 0.4% MoM (well above the 0.0% exp) and May was also revised higher.

saved by the seasonals headline spending surprises as real retail sales plunge

The Control Group - used in the calculation of GDP - exploded 0.9% MoM higher - smashing the +0.2% expectations()

Non-store retailers (online) were the biggest driver of the gains in June while motor vehicles and parts dealers saw sales plunge...

saved by the seasonals headline spending surprises as real retail sales plunge

 

Source: Bloomberg

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales were +0.2% YoY with Motor Vehicle Sales the largest contributor to the downside....

saved by the seasonals headline spending surprises as real retail sales plunge

Source: Bloomberg

Finally on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, real retail sales (roughly 'adjusted' for CPI) tumbled YoY in June...

saved by the seasonals headline spending surprises as real retail sales plunge

Source: Bloomberg

As seasonals saved the day...

saved by the seasonals headline spending surprises as real retail sales plunge

Source: Bloomberg

...aaah, Bidenomics!

Authored by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge July 16th 2024