The trend for 'soft' survey data is very much not the friend of the 'soft-landing' or 'goldilocks' narrative peddlers as it slumps from extreme optimism to disappointed pessimism...
Source: Bloomberg
And today saw more of the same as the Chicago MNI tumbled further off the 'weird' spike in November, back into contraction...
Under the hood was ugly:
New orders fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion
Production fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction
Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Worse still, the prices paid index component continued to rise.
Slower growth, rising prices, and survey-based hope fading fast - not exactly 'election-winning' headlines.
