Exactly one month ago we reminded readers, and the new generation of traders who may have been in kindergarten during the first trade war of 2017-2018, that a core feature of the market rollercoaster that marked Trump 1.0's reign is crashing markets... and strategically timed trial balloons meant to push stocks sharply higher, to wit:
For those who already forgot the first Trump trade war, we are nearing the time when everyone turns apocalyptically bearish and the White House leaks a bullish "trade war deal" trial balloon.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 4, 2025
And sure enough, we got a vivid reminder of just that moments ago when Trump, on his Truth Social account, announced that he had a "very productive" call with the head of the Vietnamese communist party, adding that if Vietnam wants to cut their tariffs to "ZERO", all they have to do is "make an agreement with the U.S."...
... or precisely what we said two days ago when we explained that this particular trade war will be all about the deals that Trump completes as he pulls the country and market from the abyss.
That was quick: Thailand to Negotiate With the US on 36% Imposed Tariffs: PM
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 3, 2025
Next: everyone else
Everyone else.... starting with Vietnam, which as we profiled yesterday was slapped with some of the highest reciprocal tariffs...
... crushing countless US consumer companies who rely on cheap Vietnamese exports.
But wait, there's more... because with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to speak momentarily, Trump reminds the Fed chair who really is boss when in a subsequent post on TS, the president said that "this would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always “late,” but he could now change his image, and quickly. Energy prices are down, Interest Rates are down, Inflation is down, even Eggs are down 69%, and Jobs are UP, all within two months - A BIG WIN for America. CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!"
Considering recession expectations are soaring, while inflation expectations - based on the impartial market and not a bunch of Democrats "polled" by marxist professors at the University of Michigan - are collapsing...
... we would have to a agree with Trump who is surely wondering why the Fed cut rates in September when growth expectations were much higher, and why Powell isn't doing the same now.
The market reaction was prompt, with futures reversing losses and jumping, if not so much to the implicit Powell threat, then certainly to the possibility that one after another country will now line up to get a trade deal done with Trump.
