Take-Two Shares Drop After Grand Theft Auto VI Delayed Again

Take-Two Interactive Software fell in premarket trading in New York after lowering its fiscal 2025 bookings forecast on Thursday evening and announcing a release date for Grand Theft Auto VI in the autumn of 2025. Some Wall Street desks viewed the release date as a "delay." 

Take-Two now expects fiscal 2025 bookings between $5.55 billion and $5.65 billion, down from the Bloomberg estimate of $6.92 billion.  

Here's a snapshot of the 2025 outlook:

• Sees net bookings $5.55 billion to $5.65 billion, estimate $6.92 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
• Sees adjusted EPS $2.34 to $2.59, estimate $5.86
• Sees adjusted Ebitda $746 million to $800 million, estimate $1.23 billion

Besides the outlook, Wall Street analysts focused on Take-Two's Rockstar Games release of GTA6. Some desks say this date is considered a "delay." 

Morgan Stanley, Matthew Cost (overweight)

• The delay to Grand Theft Auto VI removes a "major overhang" from the shares, which Cost says had weighed on the stock since 3Q results in February
• Not surprised by limited EPS growth in the guidance, though notes management had "pointed to a significant planned increase in marketing around Zynga titles, which we would hope to see generate meaningful incremental profitability in FY26"

Raymond James, Andrew Marok (outperform)

• Results came slightly ahead of expectations, though Take-Two put the "final nail in the coffin" for expectations of Grand Theft Auto VI releasing in FY25
• "The new FY25 guide suggests seven immersive core titles: the already-released TopSpin 2K25, the dependable iterations of NBA 2K and WWE 2K, a new iteration of a sizable 2K franchises (we estimate Civilization VII), and three others (one of which we expect is PGA Tour 2K25)"

Citi, Jason Bazinet (buy)

• The Grand Theft Auto date "will place the release in FY 2026 and likely be the main driver behind today's lower FY 2025 outlook"
•  "Some investors might view this latest GTA VI delay as a clearing event for the stock, limiting potential downside"

Deutsche Bank, Benjamin Soff (buy)

• While Grand Theft Auto VI has been delayed, the long-term opportunity in the stock remains intact
• Bookings outperformance during 4Q was driven by strength from NBA 2K24, Take-Two's mobile business and GTA

Bloomberg Intelligence, Nathan Naidu and Kevin Tsao

• "Take-Two's updated launch timing for Grand Theft Auto VI means its release will take place after end-fiscal 2025, overshadowing its fiscal 4Q consensus earnings beat"
• "Net bookings in fiscal 1Q ending June is expected to grow by a low-single digit, as a full quarter from new games offsets softness in the GTA franchise's multiplayer game, with likely upside from the completion of Gearbox acquisition"

Vital Knowledge

• The outlook is "downbeat" but the company is "still upbeat on sales growth over the coming years, and "this optimism should help mitigate the knee-jerk slump that will accompany the F25 guide"

This is not the first time analysts have feared delays. 

Some gamers have been waiting a decade for GTA 6. 

Take-Two shares have surged in recent quarters on the anticipation of the GTA 6 release. Shares have hit resistance between the $160-$170 levels. In premarket trading, shares are down 2%. 

"We do feel highly confident that we'll deliver [Grand Theft Auto VI] in fall of 2025," Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick told video game website IGN when asked about rumors GTA 6 could be delayed into 2026.