Following President Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs last Wednesday, Goldman analysts began evaluating which U.S. retailers are most vulnerable due to their deeply embedded supply chains across Asia. A new note from the bank offers a more complete view of the potential tariff impact on apparel retailers and brands within its coverage universe. The data may also help consumers gauge which retailers will likely pass on higher costs.
Goldman analysts Brooke Roach, Evan Dorschner, and others penned a note Monday titled "Reciprocal Tariffs: Key considerations and scenario analysis," focusing on tariff impacts on U.S. apparel brands and retailers in their stock coverage.
In the "Scenario Analysis For Our Softlines Coverage Universe" section of the note, Roach provided clients with the "tariff impact for each of our covered retailers and brands."
Their analysis shows that seven companies under coverage—Amer Sports, SharkNinja, Nike, Torrid Holdings, Lululemon, and PVH Corp—face tariff rates exceeding 40%, while Groupe Dynamite's rate approaches 50%.
The analyst then took the same softline coverage and overlaid it with the tariff rate on the X-axis and U.S. sales exposure (%) on the Y-axis.
Companies with higher merchandise and gross margins are generally better insulated from the worsening trade war.
Some retailers and brands in this softline coverage faced lower tariff pressure and have outperformed their peers.
Last week, Roach outlined a supply chain analysis of softline stocks. She said that companies such as Warby Parker, Torrid Holdings, Groupe Dynamite, Nike, Yeti Coolers, and SharkNinja had high supply chain exposure to China and other Asian countries targeted by Trump's latest tariff round.
The new data provided by Roach and colleagues on Monday will help consumers navigate the retailers and brands that are subjected to the highest tariffs because their management teams did not heed Trump's warnings in his first term. Reward the companies that have the least exposure to Asia—and more importantly, buy American for maximum cost savings.
