We said not to expect a lot of fireworks from today's CPI number, and we were right: it came bang on expectations in every metric and the market reaction was - at least initially - a snooze, with dovish sentiment initially winning over as Supercore CPI posted a big drop from September...
... even though little in the overall story has changed, and what matters now for the Fed is the shape of Trump's tariff and trade policy. As such, expect the early dovish bounce to fizzle as the great unknowns remain and if anything, we are about to see a crunch of global trade supply chains (see "Lighthizer and his allies lay groundwork for Trump’s massive new tariffs").
