Trade War Over? Mexican President Says Tariffs Delayed For Month After Deploying 10,000 Troops To Border To Halt Fentanyl

Late last night we said that it is very likely Trump's trade war would be very short, after we pointed to better than evern Polymarket odds that the trade war with both Mexico and Canada would be over in the next month or two.

And then, just hours later, this appears to have been validated after Mexico's president Scheinbaum said that after having a good conversation with Trump, Mexico is "pausing tariffs for a month for now" and that Mexico will promptly comply with Trump's ask by reinforning the northern border with 10,000 national guard members to "prevent drug trafficking from Mexico to the US, particularly fentanyl."

Here is a translation of what she said:

We had a good conversation with President Trump with great respect for our relationship and sovereignty; we reached a series of agreements:

1. Mexico will immediately reinforce the northern border with 10,000 members of the National Guard to prevent drug trafficking from Mexico to the United States, particularly fentanyl.

2. The United States is committed to working to prevent the trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico.

3. Our teams will begin working today on two fronts: security and trade.

4. They are pausing tariffs for one month from now.

President Trump has confirmed the tariffs are paused for one month:

And now that trade war with Mexico appears to be over, Trump just has to repeat the same with Canada when he speaks to Trudeau at 3pm ET today. As for China, we doubt that particular trade war will be as easy to win but who knows: Trump is certainly no a roll.

In any case, the market is certainly delighted with the outcome, and the Mexican peso is surging...

TSY yields are rising (shouldn't they fall on non-inflationary, non-tariffs?)...

And US equities are reversing the large losses overnight quite rapidly...

Now, what will the MSM say after doom-mongering all morning about Trump's 'catastrophic' tariffs?