After jumping in November (post-election, led by Republicans' confidence), UMich consumer sentiment was expected to extend its gains in preliminary December data released today and it did, but the picture was mixed.
Current Conditions exploded higher (from 63.9 to 77.7, well above consensus) while Expectations dropped from 76.9 to 71.6 (missing consensus) with the headline sentiment rising to 74.0 from 71.8 (its highest since April)...
Source: Bloomberg
This was the biggest jump in Current Conditions since Nov 1992 - when Bill Clinton was elected...
Source: Bloomberg
Along with that surge in confidence came a jump in inflation expectations...
Source: Bloomberg
As UMich's Joanne Hsu comments: "The expectations index continued the post-election re-calibration that began last month, climbing for Republicans and declining for Democrats in December. Independents were, as usual, in the middle between the two major parties, with readings close to the national average. This adjustment process is consistent with a response to actual underlying changes in expectations for the national economy, and not merely an expression of partisanship."
For example, throughout this month’s interviews, Democrats voiced concerns that anticipated policy changes, particularly tariff hikes, would lead to a resurgence in inflation.
Republicans disagreed; they expect the next president will usher in an immense slowdown in inflation.
As such, national measures of sentiment and expectations continue to reflect the collective economic experiences and observations of the American population as a whole.
