- US stocks were mixed on Monday with SPX, DJI and RUT paring some of the post-NFP downside, although the Nasdaq added to losses amid tech weakness, particularly in semiconductors which are being weighed on by Biden export controls and also a report in The Information that some of Nvidia’s (NVDA) biggest customers are facing new delays in getting its most advanced AI chips up and running in data centres. Conversely, the Dow was the clear outperformer due to upside in heavyweight UnitedHealth (UNH), which rallied after the US proposed a 4.3% avg. increase in Medicare Advantage plan payments for 2026.
- USD was marginally firmer to start the week in a continuation of the moves seen in the wake of the hot US payrolls report on Friday, while there was little new in terms of macro fundamentals for the greenback and no Fed speakers although participants await the latest US CPI data on Wednesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment & Building Approvals, Japanese Current Account, Supply from Japan.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment & Building Approvals, Japanese Current Account, Supply from Japan.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US TRADE
- US stocks were mixed on Monday with SPX, DJI and RUT paring some of the post-NFP downside, although the Nasdaq added to losses amid tech weakness, particularly in semiconductors which are being weighed on by Biden export controls and also a report in The Information that some of Nvidia's (NVDA) biggest customers are facing new delays in getting its most advanced AI chips up and running in data centres. Conversely, the Dow was the clear outperformer due to upside in heavyweight UnitedHealth (UNH), which rallied after the US proposed a 4.3% avg. increase in Medicare Advantage plan payments for 2026.
- SPX +0.16% at 5,836, NDX -0.30% at 20,785, DJI +0.86% at 42,297, RUT +0.24% at 2,194.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- White House said US President Biden approved student loan relief for over 150k borrowers.
- US House Freedom Caucus members reportedly made it clear to President-elect Trump that they favour a two-step approach to the reconciliation bill, according to Punchbowl citing sources.
- NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (Dec) showed the 1yr ahead inflation view was unchanged at 3%, 3yr ahead view rose to 3% (prev. 2.6% M/M) and 5yr ahead expectation fell to 2.7% (prev. 2.9%).
FX
- USD was marginally firmer to start the week in a continuation of the moves seen in the wake of the hot US payrolls report on Friday, while there was little new in terms of macro fundamentals for the greenback and no Fed speakers although participants await the latest US CPI data on Wednesday.
- EUR weakened in which EUR/USD briefly dipped to sub-1.0200 in early trade but gradually rebounded off lows in little currency-specific newsflow.
- GBP retreated to hit a low of 1.2100 where it found some support, while some key data releases are scheduled this week including UK CPI and GDP.
- JPY marginally strengthened on the day with some haven flows seen after reports of a 6.9 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Japan which triggered a tsunami warning although this was later lifted.
FIXED INCOME
- T-notes settled lower with price action choppy in quiet trade ahead of US inflation.
COMMODITIES
- Oil prices gained amid expectations of Russian crude supply disruption after the US recently toughened sanctions on Russia's energy sector targeting more than 200 entities and individuals, although some of the gains were pared amid positive Middle East updates and a firmer dollar.
- EU intends to let its gas price cap expire as scheduled at the end of this month, according to Reuters citing EU diplomats.
- Six EU nations called for a lower G7 price cap on Russian oil, according to a document cited by Reuters. It was separately reported that ten EU nations called for the sanctioning of Russian natural gas and LNG, according to Bloomberg.
- At least 65 tankers have anchored in Asia, Russia, Middle East after the US sanctions announced on January 10th, according to Reuters citing ship tracking data.
- Slovakian PM Fico invited Ukrainian President Zelensky for talks on gas transit.
- Ukraine halted production at the Pokrovsk coking coal mine due to the approach of Russian troops, according to Reuters citing two industry sources.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel and Hamas are close to a possible hostage and ceasefire deal that will likely be announced on Monday night or Tuesday morning in which 33 hostages will be released during the first phase, with a staged withdrawal of IDF forces from Gaza other than an undefined security perimeter. However, in terms of when the ceasefire deal would be signed and if it would be signed, there was still uncertainty if it was hours away, days away, or could still unravel, according to sources cited by Jerusalem Post.
- A deal between Israel and Hamas could be just hours away to start a process that would see Israeli hostages exchanged for Palestinian prisoners, followed by an end to the war in Gaza, according to Fox News's Yingst.
- Israel and mediators Qatar, Egypt and the US agreed on a draft Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal and forwarded it to Hamas.
- Israel reportedly handed over the list of Palestinian prisoners it intends to release, according to Al Arabiya citing sources. It was separately reported that Hamas submitted its latest response to the hostage deal draft outline without any reservations, according to Al-Arabiya.
- Israel softened its positions on several issues with regard to the Israel-Hamas deal, according to Kann News sources.
- Negotiators made significant progress over the weekend in ongoing attempts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, while the White House has been pushing both sides to reach an agreement by the end of the week, according to NBC citing an official who stated they are not there yet but there is potential for real progress.
- Israeli army said sirens were activated in several areas in Israel after a missile was fired from Yemen which was intercepted, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Turkish intelligence chief discussed Gaza ceasefire efforts with Hamas officials and agreed to continue efforts to achieve a ceasefire, according to a Turkish security source.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russian Kremlin said there are no specific preparations underway for a possible US President-Elect Trump and Russian President Putin meeting. Furthermore, it hopes Russia will be able to counteract the US attempt to undermine Russian companies and said the US sanctions are bound to destabilise global energy markets.
- Russian President Putin and Iran’s President are to sign cooperation agreement after their talks, according to RIA citing Russia's Kremlin.
OTHER
- NATO wants to bring forward an agreement on new weapons and troop goals to summer, while it was also reported that Germany’s Defence Minister said they need to implement NATO's new capability targets as quickly as possible.
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US and allies announced new controls on AI chips that set quotas on exports to about 120 countries, while US allies including Japan, the UK and the Netherlands will be exempt.
- China firmly opposes the new US export control measures which further tighten export controls on AI chips and China will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests, according to Global Times.
EMERGING MARKETS
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Mexico’s President said they plan to reduce Chinese imports and boost local production, while they plan to be in the top 10 global economies by 2030 and add 1.5mln jobs in specialised manufacturing and strategic sectors by 2030.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK PM Starmer said the government will absolutely stick to the fiscal rules, while he added that Chancellor Reeves is doing a fantastic job and she has his full confidence.
- ECB's Vujčić said under current uncertainty, it is better to move gradually as the ECB is doing and expectations for a gradual meeting-by-meeting approach are justified, while he added that near-term expectations of markets seem justified and developments are broadly in line with ECB projections.
