- US stocks caught a bid as the risk tone improved after recent turmoil with outperformance in Real Estate, Energy and Industrials, while nearly all sectors closed in green, aside from Consumer Discretionary. The focus of the day was on economic data including a mixed Retail Sales report and a dismal NY Fed Manufacturing survey, while there was a lack of fresh trade/tariff updates other than the White House repeating that reciprocal tariffs will come into effect from April 2nd.
- USD softened amid the risk-on sentiment to begin the week and ahead of a deluge of risk events including the FOMC on Wednesday, while the latest data releases were mixed as Retail Sales disappointed on the headline but the control group was strong which feeds directly into GDP and NY Fed Manufacturing was dismal but Business Inventories printed in line. Furthermore, there was little Trump tariff talk although Bloomberg reported that USTR Greer is looking to inject order into the reciprocal tariffs after previous tariffs roiled markets and fueled business uncertainty.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Singapore Unemployment Rate & Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity Index.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include Singapore Unemployment Rate & Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity Index.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US TRADE
- US stocks caught a bid as the risk tone improved after recent turmoil with outperformance in Real Estate, Energy and Industrials, while nearly all sectors closed in green, aside from Consumer Discretionary. The focus of the day was on economic data including a mixed Retail Sales report and a dismal NY Fed Manufacturing survey, while there was a lack of fresh trade/tariff updates other than the White House repeating that reciprocal tariffs will come into effect from April 2nd.
- SPX +0.69% at 5,677, NDX +0.55% at 19,812, DJI +0.87% at 41,847, RUT +1.18% at 2,068.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- White House said reciprocal tariffs will go into effect on April 2nd.
- USTR Greer is reportedly imposing a policy process on the reciprocal tariff plan and is attempting to inject order into sweeping new tariffs expected next month, after previous announcements roiled markets and fuelled business uncertainty.
- EU is planning to propose export restrictions and duties on European scrap steel and metals in Q3 2025, while it is to launch an investigation on potential safeguard measures to counter US tariffs, according to a draft steel action plan cited by Reuters.
- India reportedly weighs lower tariffs for US medical devices in which the government may offer easier market access for US medical device firms as part of its efforts to mitigate the potential impact of US tariff threat on Indian exports and create leverage in trade negotiations, according to Economic Times.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1 25) -2.1% (prev. -1.6% on 7th March, -2.4% on 6th March)
DATA RECAP
- US NY Fed Manufacturing (Mar) -20 vs. Exp. -1.5 (Prev. 5.7)
- US Retail Sales MM (Feb) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. -0.9%, Rev. -1.2%)
- US Retail Control (Feb) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.8%, Rev. -1.0%)
- US Retail Inventories Ex-Auto Rev (Jan) 0.5% (Prev. 0.4%)
- US NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar) 39.0 vs. Exp. 42.0 (Prev. 42.0)
- US Business Inventories MM (Jan) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.2%)
FX
- USD softened amid the risk-on sentiment to begin the week and ahead of a deluge of risk events including the FOMC on Wednesday, while the latest data releases were mixed as Retail Sales disappointed on the headline but the control group was strong which feeds directly into GDP and NY Fed Manufacturing was dismal but Business Inventories printed in line. Furthermore, there was little Trump tariff talk although Bloomberg reported that USTR Greer is looking to inject order into the reciprocal tariffs after previous tariffs roiled markets and fueled business uncertainty.
- EUR benefitted from dollar weakness and reclaimed the 1.0900 status in a day void of currency-specific headlines.
- GBP climbed on the back of the floundering buck which lifted GBP/USD to just shy of the 1.3000 handle.
- JPY was the laggard and underperformed against the greenback as the haven currency suffered amid the risk on conditions, while the BoJ are set to begin a two-day policy meeting in which the central bank is widely expected to maintain rates at the current 0.50% level.
FIXED INCOME
- T-notes were slightly lower with the curve flattening on mixed US data ahead of Fed on Wednesday.
COMMODITIES
- Oil prices were mildly higher with prices supported by heightened geopolitics.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said the hundreds of attacks being made by Houthis all emanate from and are created by Iran, while he warned any further attack by the Houthis will be met with great force, and there is no guarantee that force will stop there. Furthermore, Trump added that "Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!".
- Pentagon said regarding Yemen strikes that "this is not an endless offensive" and is not aimed at regime change, while it will use overwhelming lethal force until it achieves its objective in Yemen and noted the initial wave of US strikes in Yemen hit over 30 targets including Houthi training sites. Furthermore, the Pentagon said they are going after a much broader set of targets in Yemen than under Biden and that Houthis could stop US strikes by saying they will halt their attacks.
- US President Trump's administration "inquired from Egypt about the ability to remove Hamas from the political and administrative scene in Gaza", according to Sky News Arabia citing a Palestinian source.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump’s administration is reportedly considering recognising Ukraine’s Crimea region as Russian territory as part of any future agreement to end Moscow’s war on Kyiv and admin officials have also discussed the possibility of having the US urge the UN to do the same, according to Semafor citing sources. However, Trump has not formally made any decisions and the possible Crimea moves are two of a multitude of options being floated as his administration pushes for an end to the war.
- French President Macron spoke to Ukrainian President Zelensky today and reaffirmed it is up to Russia to prove that Russia truly wants peace.
OTHER
- China's Taiwan Affairs Office said Chinese military exercises near Taiwan are "resolute punishment" for Lai Ching-Te's continuous promotion of separatism, while it warned the Lai administration that if it "dares to provoke and play with fire, it will only bring about its own destruction".
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said Chinese President Xi will be coming "in the not too distant future".
- China's Vice Premier spoke with the UK Energy Secretary and said they are willing to work together to deepen cooperation in financial services, trade, investment, and green- and low-carbon development.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- ECB's de Guindos said that the administration of US President Trump has increased economic uncertainty due to tariff deregulation and a trade war is bad for the global economy.
- Top German court rejected additional attempts to stop the debt brake reform vote.
