- US stocks finished mixed with price action choppy on the day amid a lack of major fresh catalysts and as attention centred on US President Trump's tariff rhetoric, while participants also braced for Nvidia's earnings which beat on top and bottom lines but triggered an indecisive reaction after-hours.
- USD was firmer and clawed back some of Tuesday's losses with Trump tariff talk the highlight during the US session in which he appeared to push back the Canada and Mexico tariff dates, as he responded "April 2nd, that's for everything" when asked when do tariffs on Canada and Mexico go into effect, although Commerce Secretary Lutnick then clarified that if Trump is satisfied by the March 4th deadline (in relation to tariffs in response fentanyl and border security) Trump could pause fentanyl/border related tariffs, but global tariffs still come into effect on April 2nd.
- Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand ANZ Business Surveys, Australian Capital Expenditure, Supply from Australia and Japan.
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include New Zealand ANZ Business Surveys, Australian Capital Expenditure, Supply from Australia and Japan.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US TRADE
- US stocks finished mixed with price action choppy on the day amid a lack of major fresh catalysts and as attention centred on US President Trump's tariff rhetoric, while participants also braced for Nvidia's earnings which beat on top and bottom lines but triggered an indecisive reaction after-hours.
- SPX +0.01% at 5,956, NDX +0.22% at 21,133, DJI -0.43% at 43,433, RUT +0.19% at 2,174.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said not stopping the tariffs and tariffs will go on, not all but a lot of them, while he also stated that Canada and Mexico tariffs go into effect on April 2nd and that they don't need Canada's lumber. Furthermore, Trump said he will be announcing tariffs on the EU very soon and that the EU can try to retaliate on tariffs, as well as noted that EU tariffs are to be 25% on autos and other things.
- US Commerce Secretary Lutnick clarified if President Trump is satisfied by the March 4th deadline (in relation to tariffs in response to fentanyl and border security), President Trump could pause fentanyl and border-related tariffs, but global tariffs still come into effect on April 2nd.
- White House still plans to implement 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico next week, at least for now — despite comments from US President Trump earlier that raised hopes of another delay, according to Axios.
- Mexican President Sheinbaum said a revision to the USMCA trade deal will "probably" occur ahead of the planned timeline in 2026.
- EU's trade chief Sefcovic intends to visit China at the end of March, according to SCMP.
- EU will react 'firmly and immediately' to US tariff, according to AFP citing a European Commission source.
- UK Chancellor Reeves is confident trade and investment flows between the UK and the US can increase.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed's Bostic (2027 voter) said inflation is high, but they have seen a lot of progress and his outlook is for inflation to continue on the path to 2%, while they need more data to see if January inflation is a bump or a trend. Bostic also stated the Fed needs to stay where it is and see how the world evolves, with Fed policy restrictive and needs to stay restrictive.
- US President Trump said they want a balanced budget in a reasonably short period of time, maybe by next year or the year after. Trump also said he will be talking to cabinet secretaries to do their own dirge of federal workers and that DOGE is cutting down the government which he suggested was bloated and sloppy.
- Elon Musk said the overall DOGE goal is to address the deficit and if they do not cut spending, America will go bankrupt, while he added they need to move quickly to achieve a trillion-dollar deficit reduction.
- NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) Q4 24 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.89 (exp. 0.83), Revenue 39.33bln (exp. 37.61bln).
DATA RECAP
- US Build Permits Number (Jan) 1.473M (Prev. 1.483M)
- US New Home Sales-Units (Jan) 0.657M vs. Exp. 0.68M (Prev. 0.698M, Rev. 0.734M)
FX
- USD was firmer and clawed back some of Tuesday's losses with Trump tariff talk the highlight during the US session in which he appeared to push back the Canada and Mexico tariff dates, as he responded "April 2nd, that's for everything" when asked when do tariffs on Canada and Mexico go into effect, although Commerce Secretary Lutnick then clarified that if Trump is satisfied by the March 4th deadline (in relation to tariffs in response fentanyl and border security) Trump could pause fentanyl/border related tariffs, but global tariffs still come into effect on April 2nd.
- EUR marginally softened in choppy trade with the single currency back beneath the 1.0500 handle, while US President Trump stated that he will be announcing tariffs on the EU very soon and that the EU can try to retaliate on tariffs, as well as noted that EU tariffs are to be 25% on autos and other things.
- GBP ultimately returned to flat territory on the day amid light UK-specific catalysts and with comments from BoE's Dhingra providing little to spur price action.
- JPY conformed to the indecisive mood across the FX space and traded on both sides of the 149.00 level.
FIXED INCOME
- T-notes settled higher after paring the overnight Budget-induced weakness and with the upside also facilitated by a strong 7-year auction.
COMMODITIES
- Oil prices were lower in choppy trade amid mixed inventory data and with some mild support seen after US President Trump announced he will be reversing the concessions former President Biden gave to Venezuela's Maduro on an oil deal.
- US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e -2.332M vs. Exp. 2.535M (Prev. 4.633M)
- US President Trump announced on Truth Social to reverse concessions former President Biden gave to Venezuela's Maduro on an oil deal and stated the “Concession Agreement” is being terminated as of the March 1st option to renew.
- Iraq’s government reached an agreement with Kurdistan to restart oil exports, according to Iraq News Agency.
- Russia and Iraq have discussed conditions of participation in the Nasiriyah oilfield project in Iraq, according to TASS citing the Russian Energy Ministry.
- Oil loadings from Russia's western ports in March were seen down 8% M/M amid higher refinery runs, according to sources cited by Reuters.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Mediators in Egypt and Qatar with the US administration are reportedly pushing towards the start of negotiations for the second phase of the Gaza agreement", according to Palestinian sources cited by Al-Sharq.
- IAEA report said Iran's stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity in uranium hexafluoride (UF6) form is estimated to have grown by 92.5kg to 274.8kg and IAEA chief Grossi seriously concerned that the outstanding safeguards issues in Iran remain unresolved. Furthermore, it was noted that around 42kg of uranium enriched to 60% is theoretically enough if enriched further, to produce a nuclear bomb.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian military said it hit an oil plant in Russia's Tuapse and two Russian airfields in occupied Crimea.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said a minerals deal with the US is a framework agreement with a further agreement to set up a fund to follow, while he added the deal is to be signed at a ministerial level and no ratification is needed. Furthermore, Zelensky said the deal could be part of security guarantees from the US and he cannot confirm the Washington trip on Friday but noted teams are working on it.
- US President Trump said they will be partnering with Ukraine on rare earth and will not be making security guarantees but Europe will. Trump added the US needs rare earths and Ukraine has great ones, while he stated Ukrainian President Zelensky is coming to sign the deal.
- US President Trump said he thinks they will have a deal with Russian President Putin and noted that Putin had no intention of settling the Ukraine war, while Trump added that Putin will have to make concessions and he believes the Ukraine war will come to an end.
- US abstained from co-sponsoring a joint statement at WTO condemning Russia's aggression in Ukraine, according to Reuters citing diplomatic sources.
- Russia's Kremlin said expert-level talks with the US are being prepared and there are no current plans for a call between US President Trump and Russian President Putin but may take place if necessary and they are still interested in implementing economic cooperation in "different" areas.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said they don't consider the option of European troops deployment in Ukraine, while he said Russia and the US will discuss the works of their embassies at a meeting in Istanbul on Thursday. Furthermore, a US embassy official in Ankara said no political and security issues are on the agenda during talks with Russia on Thursday and Ukraine is also not on the agenda. It was separately reported that US and Russia consider cooperation on Arctic trade routes and exploration.
OTHER
- US President Trump will not comment on whether China should not take Taiwan by force and said he has a great relationship with Chinese President Xi and wants China to invest in the US, while Trump added he will have a good relationship with China and the US will invest in China.
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- China's NFRA and NDRC held a meeting on additional support for private firms with NFRA to increase support for tech and private companies, while it vowed to optimise the equity investment environment.
- China is to reportedly start recapitalising banks with at least USD 55bln, according to Bloomberg sources
- China’s Foreign Minister met with New Zealand's Foreign Minister in Beijing and said they are willing to strengthen strategic communication with New Zealand.
- TikTok and ByteDance are still opposed to a sale and are in talks with the Trump administration on a deal that would allow US backers to own a larger share of the company.
- DeepSeek is lowering its off-peak API pricing by up to 75%, according to a statement.
- Japanese senior finance ministry official said Japan told G20 they must be vigilant to excessive FX volatility driven by speculative moves.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE's Dhingra said monetary policy action alone is not well-suited to address systemic price shocks in key sectors such as energy and food, while she added it could even be counterproductive, as it could constrain investment that would enhance supply resilience and exacerbate future vulnerabilities.
- EU Commission proposes to mobilise EUR 100bln of funding to support EU-made "clean" manufacturing, while EUR 1bln from the current budget will be part of guarantees and the European Investment Bank is to launch a series of new financing instruments.
