- US stocks traded mixed with outperformance in the Nasdaq 100 and the small-cap Russell 2000 was the laggard, while both SPX and DJIA were relatively flat with participants lacking firm conviction as incoming tariffs remain in the spotlight and as participants also digested several data releases including weaker-than-expected US Consumer Confidence and a disappointing Richmond Fed Index. On the geopolitical front, Russia and Ukraine have both agreed on a Black Sea ceasefire with the US and Russia to work together on measures banning strikes on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine.
- USD was only marginally softer on the day after rebounding from intraday lows with support seen following a brief dip beneath the 104.00 level despite weak US Consumer Confidence data, while President Trump reaffirmed he has April 2nd tariffs set and reiterated criticism on EU regarding trade.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Services PPI & Leading Index, Australian Monthly CPI, Singapore Industrial Production, Supply from Australia.
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include Japanese Services PPI & Leading Index, Australian Monthly CPI, Singapore Industrial Production, Supply from Australia.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US TRADE
- US stocks traded mixed with outperformance in the Nasdaq 100 and the small-cap Russell 2000 was the laggard, while both SPX and DJIA were relatively flat with participants lacking firm conviction as incoming tariffs remain in the spotlight and as participants also digested several data releases including weaker-than-expected US Consumer Confidence and a disappointing Richmond Fed Index. On the geopolitical front, Russia and Ukraine have both agreed on a Black Sea ceasefire with the US and Russia to work together on measures banning strikes on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine.
- SPX +0.16% at 5,777, NDX +0.53% at 20,288, DJI +0.01% at 42,588, RUT -0.66% at 2,095.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said he has April 2nd tariffs set and that he has been fair to countries that abused the US for many decades, while he added that tariffs will create more jobs. Trump also reiterated that he thinks Europeans have been freeloading and the EU has been absolutely terrible to the US on trade but noted that Mexico and Canada have stepped it up a lot.
- US President Trump reportedly considers a two-step tariff regime on April 2nd, while a possible phased approach to new US levies reflects debate over trade strategy within the administration. The proposals admin officials are considering would seek to ground the President's "reciprocal" tariff regime in a more robust legal framework while enabling Trump to raise money for planned tax cuts, according to FT.
- Chinese delegation will meet with the Commerce Secretary and USTR on Wednesday to negotiate over tariffs, while the meeting will discuss tariffs, fentanyl and trade barriers among other issues, according to FBN's Lawrence citing a source.
- India is reportedly open to cutting tariffs on over half of US imports worth USD 23bln and is open to cutting tariffs to as low as 0 from a 5-30% range on 55% of US imports.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Kugler (voter) sees current Fed policy as still restrictive and judges that policy is well positioned, while she estimates that 12-month PCE was 2.5% in February (echoes Powell estimate) and noted that progress on bringing inflation to target has slowed since last summer.
- Fed’s Williams (voter) said households and firms are seeing heightened uncertainty.
- US President Trump said another business announcement is coming on Wednesday.
- US President Trump reportedly seeks a debt limit increase in the tax bill, according to Politico.
- The Trump administration is moving to freeze tens of millions of dollars in federal family-planning grants to certain organizations while it investigates whether the money was used for diversity efforts, according to WSJ citing sources.
DATA RECAP
- US Consumer Confidence (Mar) 92.9 vs. Exp. 94.0 (Prev. 98.3; Rev. 100.1)
- US Building Permits Change MM (Feb) -1.0% (Prev. -1.2%)
- US New Home Sales-Units (Feb) 0.676M vs. Exp. 0.679M (Prev. 0.657M, Rev. 0.664M)
- US CaseShiller 20 MM SA (Jan) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.5%)
- US CaseShiller 20 YY NSA (Jan) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 4.5%)
- US Rich Fed Comp. Index (Mar) -4.0 (Prev. 6.0)
- US Rich Fed Services Index (Mar) -4.0 (Prev. 11.0)
- US Rich Fed Mfg Shipments (Mar) -7.0 (Prev. 12.0)
FX
- USD was only marginally softer on the day after rebounding from intraday lows with support seen following a brief dip beneath the 104.00 level despite weak US Consumer Confidence data, while President Trump reaffirmed he has April 2nd tariffs set and reiterated criticism on EU regarding trade.
- EUR was indecisive which saw EUR/USD on both sides of the 1.0800 level but ultimately faded an early boost from German Ifo data.
- GBP marginally strengthened but remained in a tight range at the 1.2900 handle as participants await the latest UK inflation data.
- JPY strengthened as USD/JPY continued its pullback from resistance near the 151.00 level and retreated to sub-150.00 territory.
FIXED INCOME
- T-notes settled higher and the curve bull steepened after more soft consumer data.
COMMODITIES
- Oil prices settled slightly lower after a poor US consumer confidence report and positive Ukraine-Russia updates.
- Oil loadings at Russia's western ports are seen increasing 5% M/M in April, according to Reuters citing sources/calculations.
- Oil loadings slow down at Venezuela's ports following US tariffs and wind down of Chevron's license, according to shipping data and a document cited by Reuters.
- ICE (ICE) executive said the exchange plans to launch derivatives in cobalt, lithium spodumene and nickel later this year in London.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli Defence Minister said if Hamas continues its refusal to hand over hostages, it will pay increasingly heavy prices in taking territory and thwarting terrorist operatives and infrastructure until it is completely defeated.
- US Intelligence report said Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, while it was separately reported that the US sanctioned three Iranian intelligence officers who were allegedly involved in the death of former FBI agent Levinson.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US and Russia have agreed to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea and agreed to measures for implementing the agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine, while they will continue to work towards a durable and lasting peace in Ukraine. US and Ukraine also agreed to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea and will continue working towards a durable and lasting peace, while the US is to help restore Russian access to the global market for agriculture and fertiliser exports, according to The White House.
- US President Trump said they've made a lot of progress on Ukraine and are in deep discussions with Russia/Ukraine, while he added it is going well and that Russia and Ukraine will get together on a maritime ceasefire. Furthermore, Trump said other countries are involved in the process of monitoring the ceasefire and he will look into Russian requests for sanctions relief.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine's understanding is that the agreed ceasefire is effective immediately following the US announcement, while he added the agreement does not specify actions if Russia breaks the ceasefire and Ukraine will appeal to the US directly in such a case, as well as noted that they will ask US President Trump for weapons and new Russian sanctions if Moscow breaks ceasefire. Furthermore, he said the US offered a more comprehensive framework of minerals deal and Ukraine is yet to study the offer, but it does not include nuclear power plants.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia has already started to engage in manipulation, even today, and the Kremlin is lying when it said the Black Sea ceasefire depends on sanctions. Zelensky added Ukraine will do everything to make agreements work and Russians must understand that if they launch strikes, there will be a strong response.
- Ukraine's Defence Minister said Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire at sea and to halt energy infrastructure attacks, while he had also commented that Ukraine and US talks in Riyadh were successful and Ukraine is ready for a new meeting to work out truce details.
- Russia's Kremlin confirmed that Moscow has agreed to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea and the US will help restore access to the global market for Russian agricultural and fertiliser exports. Kremlin added it depends on lifting sanctions restrictions on Rosselkhozbank and other financial organisations and this should include lifting sanctions on Cos. producing and exporting food and fertilisers, while it added that sanctions on chips should also be lifted. Furthermore, it stated that Russia and the US have agreed to develop measures to halt strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities for a period of 30 days starting from March 18th.
- Russia’s Kremlin published a list of Russian and Ukrainian facilities subject to a temporary moratorium on strikes on energy systems, while the list includes oil refineries, oil and gas pipelines, and nuclear plants. Kremlin stated the temporary moratorium is valid for 30 days beginning March 18th which may be extended by mutual agreement and in the event of breach by one party, the other party may consider itself free from obligation to comply with it.
- Russia's Kremlin said there are no plans for a Russian President Putin-US President Trump call yet but it can be organised and the content of the talks will not be disclosed in public.
- Russia said the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is a Russian nuclear facility and that transferring control over it to Ukraine or any other country is impossible, according to TASS citing the Foreign Minister.
- Russia took control of Myrne and Mali Shcherbaky in eastern Ukraine, according to Interfax.
OTHER
- US intelligence said China in 2025 is likely to apply stronger coercive pressure against Taiwan and that China presents the most "comprehensive and robust" military threat to the US, while it added that China is advancing capabilities for a cross-Strait campaign and is the most active/persistent cyber threat to the US. It also stated that China and Russia are looking at Greenland for natural resources and strategic position.
- US Secretary of State Rubio will meet with heads of state from Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, and Haiti during his visit to Jamaica, while it was stated that shipping lanes through Jamaica are key to security and the US wants to ensure Guyana has the necessary security amid its territorial dispute with Venezuela. Furthermore, it was stated that Guyana and Suriname surpassing Venezuela’s oil production is seen as a huge opportunity and a top priority, while Guyana oil developments will be a major topic of discussion.
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- China’s Commerce Minister met with the president of Boeing (BA) Global and hopes Boeing will play an active role, and contribute to the development of China-US economic and trade relations.
- Australian budget sees 2025-26 budget deficit AUD 42.1bln vs. Exp. AUD 40bln and sees a 2024-25 budget deficit of AUD 27.6bln, while it has unveiled new tax cuts that will cost AUD 17.1bln over 5 years.
- Indian Finance Minister said the Indian budget proposes to add 35 items used for EV battery manufacturing to the list of duty-exempt capital goods and will add 28 items used for mobile phone manufacturing.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- ECB's Kazimir said "services inflation is key" and is open to discussing a rate cut or pause in April, while he added they are already in the zone of the neutral rate.
- ECB's Muller said rates are not restricting the economy or investments and tariffs are likely to mean faster inflation in the short term, while any further cuts will be tariff-dependent. Muller added he is not sure how much more or when the ECB can cut rates and cannot rule out a pause.
- ECB's Villeroy said there is still scope for further policy easing with the pace and extent up for debate and market bets on a 2% deposit rate by the end of summer is a possible scenario. Villeroy added that fresh budget spending on defence and infrastructure are not necessarily inflationary and the disinflation trend in Europe is solid.
- EU antitrust regulators are set to close the investigation into Apple's (AAPL) browser options on iPhones after the Co. made changes to comply with landmark EU rules, according to Reuters citing sources.
DATA RECAP
- German Ifo Expectations New (Mar) 87.7 vs. Exp. 87.5 (Prev. 85.4)
- German Ifo Current Conditions New (Mar) 85.7 vs. Exp. 85.5 (Prev. 85.0)
- German Ifo Business Climate New (Mar) 86.7 vs. Exp. 86.7 (Prev. 85.2)
