Following the Wall Street Journal report on Tuesday afternoon about private equity interest in Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), multiple analysts at notable research desks have responded to the news, with the majority expressing "surprise" and uncertainty about the pathways moving forward to complete the deal.
"While we acknowledge the context around a potential sale in a challenging pharmacy backdrop, a buyout is harder to contemplate given its already sizable debt burden and paltry cash flow, making the value creation pathway harder to decipher," Morgan Stanley's Erin Wright wrote in a note to clients, referring to WSJ's report yesterday about Sycamore Partners discussing a deal to take over WBA early next year.
On Tuesday afternoon, WBA shares jumped as much as 25%, shy of October's highs on the news. WBA shares are down about 3.5% in premarket trading, around $10.
Raymond James' John Ransom told clients he was "surprised" by the WSJ's report. He pointed out that he struggled to see "how such a deal could get financed given WBA's deteriorating earnings/cash flow outlook and ~$15B of liabilities on the balance sheet ($8.2B of net debt + $6.6B of opioid liabilities) along with other liabilities."
In 2015, WBA commanded a market capitalization of a whopping $105 billion compared to its current $9 billion market cap—perhaps it's now cheap enough for Sycamore.
And comes at a time when short interest in WBA has exploded.
Over at TD Cowen, analyst Charles Rhyee said the takeover is entirely possible but noted that it still needs to be clarified what Sycamore could do next year to accelerate a turnaround plan for the struggling pharmacy chain with over 8,560 stores nationwide.
"Our SOTP/LBO analysis suggests a PE firm would need to believe it can turn around the US Retail segment at least in line with or better than management's current plan," Rhyee told clients.
Summing up the thoughts of the three analysts: a potential deal between Sycamore and WBA is shrouded in uncertainty.
