As we noted earlier, Powell has a problem on his hands: the unemployment rate is exactly where it was when the Fed started hiking last March...
... while financial conditions are now far easier than where they were last September...
... And adding insult to injury, the S&P is back where it was just as the Fed started hiking: hardly the outcome Powell and his henchmen had hoped for in their crusade to crush inflation.
Meanwhile, commodity prices are starting to ramp, sparking speculation that the ghost of Arthur Burns and the Fed error of the 1970s busted hiking cycle is alive and well.
So what is Powell to do? Well, he has this press conference to convince traders, algos and other dip buyers to stop doing that and sell. Will he be successful? Sit back and watch.
Below are some of the highlights from Powell's presser:
- *POWELL: FOMC STRONGLY COMMITTED TO GETTING INFLATION TO 2%
- *POWELL: WON'T ACHIEVE STRONG LABOR MKT WITHOUT PRICE STABILITY
- *POWELL: FULL EFFECTS OF TIGHTENING YET TO BE FELT
- *POWELL: FOMC TO TAKE DATA-DEPENDENT APPROACH ON FUTURE HIKES
- *POWELL: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY EXPANDING AT MODERATE PACE
- *POWELL: HOUSING SECTOR PICKED UP BUT WELL BELOW 2022 LEVELS
- *POWELL: FOMC TO TAKE DATA-DEPENDENT APPROACH ON FUTURE HIKES
- *POWELL: CONTINUING SIGNS THAT LABOR SUPPLY, DEMAND BALANCING
- *POWELL: NOMINAL WAGE GROWTH HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF EASING
- *POWELL: PROCESS OF GETTING INF TO 2% HAS A LONG WAY TO GO
- *POWELL: HIGH INFLATION RATE POSES SIGNIFICANT HARDSHIP
- *POWELL: HIGHLY ATTENTIVE TO RISKS INFLATION POSES TO MANDATE
- *POWELL: HAVE BEEN SEEING EFFECTS OF TIGHTENING IN SOME SECTORS
- *POWELL: WILL TAKE TIME FOR FULL EXTENT OF HIKES TO BE REALIZED
- *POWELL: FOMC WILL TAKE CUMULATIVE TIGHTENING, LAGS IN ACCOUNT
- *POWELL: WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE DECISIONS MEETING BY MEETING
- *POWELL: WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE DECISIONS MEETING BY MEETING
- *POWELL: REDUCING INFLATION LIKELY TO MEAN BELOW-TREND GROWTH
- *POWELL: HAVEN'T MADE DECISION TO GO TO EVERY OTHER MEETING
- *POWELL: SLOWDOWN IN JUNE CPI WELCOME, BUT ONLY ONE MONTH
- *POWELL: POSSIBLE WE'D RAISE OR HOLD IN SEPT. IF DATA WARRANTED
- *POWELL: ECONOMIC RESILIENCE IS `A GOOD THING'
- *POWELL: AT MARGIN, STRONGER GROWTH COULD LEAD TO MORE INFLATION
- *POWELL: INTERMEETING DATA WAS BROADLY CONSISTENT W/ EXPECTATION
- *POWELL: INFLATION REPORT WAS `A LITTLE BETTER THAN EXPECTED'
- *POWELL: SEPT. MOVE IS DEPENDENT ON DATA; WE DON'T HAVE IT YET
- *POWELL: AS STANCE IS MORE RESTRICTIVE, INCREASINGLY FACE RISK
- *POWELL: FOMC WANTS CORE INFLATION TO COME DOWN, STILL ELEVATED
- *POWELL: SOME DISINFLATION W/O MORE UNEMP. IS `A REAL BLESSING'
- *POWELL: POLICY NOT RESTRICTIVE ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
- *POWELL: PREPARED TO FURTHER TIGHTEN IF IT'S APPROPRIATE
- POWELL: SLOOS WILL COME OUT NEXT WEEK AND CONFIRM WHAT YOU'D EXPECT; YOU'VE GOT PRETTY TIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE ECONOMY
- *POWELL: FED WON'T BE CUTTING RATES THIS YEAR
- *POWELL: HAVE SEEN SOFTENING THROUGH JOB OPENINGS COMING DOWN
- *POWELL: IDEA OF HIKING RATES UNTIL INF. AT 2% IS WAY PAST TARGET
- *POWELL: WOULD STOP RAISING BEFORE GETTING TO 2% INFLATION
- *POWELL: DON'T SEE INFLATION BACK AT 2% UNTIL ABOUT 2025
- *POWELL: FOMC CAREFULLY MONITORING CONDITIONS IN BANKING SECTOR
- *POWELL: HARD TO TEASE OUT EFFECTS OF BANKING TURMOIL ON ECONOMY
