The Disney Grooming Syndicate’s Captain America: Brave New World is forecasted to open with a weak $70 to $85 million this coming weekend. For a new Marvel movie, especially a Captain America movie, those are not very promising numbers.
Previous Marvel movies that have opened to similar numbers (Ant-Man and the Wasp, Black Widow, Thor: Dark World) have either failed to or barely cracked a $200 million domestic gross.
That projection is also below the $95 million Captain America: The Winter Soldier opened to in 2014 and way below Captain America: Civil War’s $179 million opening in 2016.
Over the four-day weekend (it’s President’s Day), Brave New World could rise as high as $95 million. Still not good.
Much has changed since Captain America: Civil War went on to gross $408 million domestic. Marvel went woke and released a series of disappointments, including the flops The Marvels and The Eternals. The former failed to hit $100 million domestic. The latter was intended to launch a whole new franchise and featured a necking scene between two hairy men.
Brave New World, which has been plagued by expensive reshoots and lackluster test scores, not to mention a budget reported to be as high as $300 million, is Marvel’s first volley in its attempt to regain the box office luster that pretty much came to an end in 2019 with the stunning success of Avengers: Endgame. The MCU took 2024 off (unless you count Deadpool v. Wolverine) and plans three releases this year. After Brave New World comes Thunderbolts in May and Fantastic Four: First Steps in July.
Marvel will know a lot more about the sustainability of its future in just a few months.
One thing to look at with respect to Captain America: Brave New World is the coming reviews. The critical response could boost the box office or drive it into the dirt. We saw this happen to Joker 2. The reviews knocked that sequel out. Afterward, word of mouth killed it.
My guess is that rapturous reviews could boost Brave New World into a surprisingly good opening weekend. While Marvel fans have soured on the brand, that doesn’t mean they want it to fail. A return to form would be welcomed by fans who undoubtedly miss the old Marvel magic which could do no wrong for some 30 movies over nearly a decade.
Woke kills everything it touches.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
