The Disney Grooming Syndicate is likely sweating the box office prospects of Mufasa: The Lion King, a prequel to The Lion King (1994), a legitimate animated classic produced long before Bob Iger turned Disney into the equivalent of an old man in a raincoat stalking elementary school playgrounds.
Mufasa reportedly cost $200 million to produce. When you add another $75 to $100 million for promotion, this sucker will have to gross at least $550 million just to break even.
Well, as of right now, despite both the Disney and Lion King pedigree, Mufasa is projected to open to just $50 million and lose the weekend crown to Sonic the Hedgehog 3, which is expected to open at $60 million:
“Mufasa” also has a middling box office outlook and may gross $50 million this weekend against its $200 million budget, Variety and Deadline reported, likely losing the weekend to “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” in North American theaters, which may gross up to $60 million.
Projections are down from when Deadline forecasted in November “Mufasa” would gross $66 million in its opening weekend, and just two weeks ago, Variety predicted “Mufasa” would lead “the stampede of films aiming for end-of-year glory,” dismissing “Sonic” because it “hasn’t done anywhere close to Disney family-favorite numbers.”
How bad is that?
When The Lion King CGI-remake opened in 2019, it made $78 million on its first day and went on to enjoy a $200 million debut weekend.
Before we go any further, allow me to be clear on one thing: I don’t make box office predictions. This is not a prediction on my part. All I’m doing is reporting what’s out there. In my experience, making predictions, most especially around Christmas, is a fool’s errand. I would not be surprised at all if Mufasa overperforms big time or holds on through the New Year to a respectable number.
If this prequel is dragged down, it will be due to the reviews. Mufasa currently sits at a “rotten” 58 percent at Rotten Tomatoes, while Sonic 3 sits at a “fresh” 85 percent.
“Barry Jenkins’ deft hand and Lin-Manuel Miranda’s music go some way towards squaring the Circle of Life in Mufasa, but this fitfully soulful story is ill-served by its impersonal, photorealistic animation style,” reads the Rotten Tomatoes “critical consensus.”
Oscar-winner Barry Jenkins spent four years bringing Mufasa to life. He’s the writer and director of Moonlight, which won the Best Picture Academy Award for 2019. I didn’t see Moonlight because I heard there was gay stuff in it and I don’t watch movies with gay stuff.
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