Three succinct responses sum up the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey results in January:
"Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs."
"Inflation is killing us. "
"2025 is going to be great."
Against expectations of a decline to 0.0, January's print of 14.1 is above all analysts' expectations and is the biggest beat since June 2020 (when the economy was recovering from deepest COVID lockdown slump...
Source: Bloomberg
The 14.1 print is the highest since October 2021.
However, while growth and employment expectations are improving, inflation expectations are ripping higher...
Source: Bloomberg
But, overall, the tone of the survey responses is incredibly positive...
"We are starting to see an improvement in the confidence of our customers with the new administration."
"The start of the year has been extremely positive with a sharp increase in volume of new orders received. With a positive business environment, we expect this trend to continue."
"There are clear signs of markets starting to inflect up with the exception of automobiles. "
"We are seeing generally good spirits among our customers. We continue to see pushback against price increases, and people are more aware of pricing than they had been in the past, especially during 2021–22."
"There is a lot of chatter in the market about President Trump’s plans. We believe that they will turn into a robust economy over the next few months."
"The pall has lifted. Our industry is absolutely giddy with November's election outcome and the proposed Cabinet members hopefully soon to be confirmed. Personally, I feel our state is more optimistic now that an open border will close, common sense in policymaking will prevail, and free enterprise will be the beneficiary. Our phones are thankfully ringing like they haven't in quite some time."
The question is - can Trump follow-through on his promises and fulfill these expectations.
