Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
As always, I’m stoked to be able to bring you content from one of my favorite investors, Chris DeMuth Jr. Chris took the time to offer his up-to-the-minute thoughts for Fringe Finance subscribers this week.
I enjoy reading Chris as much as I love publishing him. In today’s piece, he talks about 3 trades he has on to try and play a Trump election victory.
Chris is one of the smartest people I’ve had the chance to meet during my time as an investor. He was one of the first people to ever to be nice to me when I got my start writing on companies more than a decade ago. His acumen is widely respected by many people whose work I admire and follow - and by me.
Please read Chris DeMuth’s Disclaimer / Disclosure and QTR’s at the bottom of this post. All information contained herein is opinion only of Chris DeMuth & does not constitute investment recommendations. Nothing is a solicitation to buy or sell securities.
3 Trump Trades
Trump has more likely additions than Biden does from here.
Who will win?
Trump appears to be pulling away from Biden in the sunbelt while looking increasingly competitive in the rust belt. States that Biden won handily last time appear to be much closer this time. Sure he will probably win New Jersey, Oregon, and Virginia but polls are so tight that he might have to spend money in states that should have been free wins. It is entirely possible that Trump wins reach states such as New Hampshire and Virginia. 300 electoral college votes look likely; 350 is increasingly possible.
So what?
In a populist era, it isn’t clear that Republican fiscal policy will be much more conservative than Democratic fiscal policy. And if Trump wins by 10% instead of 1%, then he could sweep in governing Republican majorities in both legislative chambers. I had looked to merger arbitrage as one potentially benefitting strategy, but that idea is garbled by the populist JD Vance pick for veep, a noted ally of Liz Warren and fan of Lina Khan on antitrust.
The straightforward trade
First, the straightforward bet...(READ THIS FULL ARTICLE AND GET ALL 3 TRADES HERE).
QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
