A Russian Take On America's New Expansionism

The Worst Person You Know Just Made A Good Point

A little over a hundred years ago, in 1923, Richard von Coudenhove-Kalergi launched his Pan-Europa movement with the publication of his first book, Pan-Europa. Kalergi, as he is frequently referred to, envisioned a sort of United States of Europe. Five years later, another author expressed skepticism of Kalergi's idea. According to Wikipedia, this author found Kalergi's Pan-Europa vision,

unfit for the future defense of Europe against America. As America fills its North American lebensraum, "the natural activist urge that is peculiar to young nations will turn outward." But then "a pacifist-democratic Pan-European hodgepodge state" would not be able to oppose the United States

That second author, nearly a hundred years ahead of the curve on the Greenland question, was Adolf Hitler. 

That history came to mind when reading the take below, buy the Russian history podcasters "Russians with Attitude". Following their take, we'll have a brief, bonus Russian take. And following that, we'll close with a brief market note about something interesting we have teed up for Friday. 

 [emphasis ours]

On American Expansionism

The incoming administration seems to have a more realistic image of the state of American hegemonial decline and wants to take proactive steps to try to counteract and reverse it, breathing new life into the American Global Empire.

In this context, it makes perfect sense for the US to increase pressure on its vassals. I am not using the term in a pejorative sense. The US does not have “allies” in the traditional meaning of the word. It has vassals with different levels of feudal obligations and elite integration, and different tasks. Extracting more value from vassals -- whether through tariffs, increased NATO budgets, meddling in local politics or potential territorial concessions -- is an absolutely logical step in cementing and renewing America's position as overlord of its sphere.

There are three ways America's European vassals can react to this: look for protection outside of the sphere, try to make themselves more useful/necessary & advance integration, or take it on the face. Were we in, I don't know, the 19th century, Denmark would just ask Russia for military support in Greenland in exchange for mild economic concessions and never worry again. As it is, the Royal Danish Army does not have any artillery anymore because they gave it all away for the purpose of firing cluster ammunition at Russian children in Donetsk. They did not receive anything in return for that and it did not help any Danish purpose. They cannot defend themselves if push comes to shove and they can't ask anybody to help because most of their fellow vassals have done the same. The most likely option is that they'll just take it on the face. Not just for pragmatic reasons, but also because they genuinely enjoy being dommed geopolitically.

America has no obligation to treat its vassals better. I've seen Danish people complain on here about supporting the US after 9/11, participating in the American wars in the Middle East, etc. That's ridiculous. You know how a colony is rewarded for sending troops to its overlord's wars? It doesn't get beaten. That's the reward for a lackey. Any person who takes any of the NATO democracy liberalism pilpul seriously is just not a serious person, it was never real, it was always just voluntary submission to be absolved from existing in History.

The world that existed in 1991-2022 does not exist anymore. It's not coming back. You can just invade your neighbor. You can just fire missiles at international shipping lanes. You can just threaten to annex members of your military alliance. “You can just do things”, as the techbros like to say. The mirage of a post-historical order that only has to be policed from time to time but is never seriously challenged has disappeared. What did you think canceling the End of History meant? Vibes? Papers? Essays?

It's not pleasant to be suddenly confronted with all of the above. It's not pleasant to have to admit to yourself that your existence was a coddled theme park that is existentially dependent on the relative position of someone else and how he feels about that relative position. America's vassals WILL have to confront this state of things and make hard decisions about their future. This means reckoning with their geopolitical impotence and either embracing dependency with open eyes or seeking pathways to autonomy that will inevitably involve risk, sacrifice, and a recalibration of their national priorities.

The era of coasting on borrowed security and ideological rhetoric is over. What lies ahead is a world where historical agency must be reclaimed or forever relinquished, and for many, the question may not be whether they are ready to make that leap, but whether they even remember how. America has now understood this -- and is mentally preparing to switch back to the cold logic that comes with actual History. The times, they are a-changin'.

A Bonus Russian Take 

Dimitri Simes, Jr. smacks down German Chancellor Olaf Scholz: 

Touché. 

Something Interesting For Friday 

Imagine MicroStrategy (MSTR) if, in addition to its bitcoin balance sheet strategy, it also had a profitable business. That profitable-version-of-MicroStrategy appeared in our top names on Wednesday night. 

We have an options trade teed up for it on Friday. If you'd like a heads up when we place it, feel free to subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below. 

And if you're looking to add some downside protection here, you can download our optimal hedging app by aiming your iPhone camera at the QR code below (or by tapping here, if you're reading this on your phone). 

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