Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
Last week I wrote about how the controversies surrounding Nvidia could wind up being a black swan for what I believe to be an extremely overvalued market, specifically the NASDAQ.
But there’s also one other name that rose to the surface last week as potentially being a black swan for the market and I wanted to take a second and note it.
There were generally two pieces of information that brought the market lower mid-week last week: (1) the controversies surrounding Nvidia’s questionable revenue and (2) Beijing banning the use of Apple iPhones at government sites.
The iPhone ban, as The Guardian notes above, is part of a larger ethos of China trying to reduce its reliance on U.S. technology among a worsening relationship between the two nations. And, video coming out of China (keep in mind that this isn’t the most trustworthy of sources) appears to show that the government push is working, and Apple has fallen out of favor. You can take a look at some of these videos on X here.
Analysts are predicting that this sentiment, combined with Huawei’s new offering, could cost 20 million iPhone shipments in China in 2024:
Moreover, Apple’s China rival Huawei introduced a new smartphone capable of ultrafast data connectivity. This, in addition to the government ban, could weigh on Apple’s iPhone sales in China.
“The government ban and the new Huawei phone will be material events for the iPhone,” said analysts at Oppenheimer. “The two combined will drive more Android users to upgrade to the Huawei, or iPhone users going back to Huawei.”
According to the analysts, Apple could lose 10 million iPhone shipments in 2024 because of the new Huawei phone. Coupled with lost shipments due to the government ban in China, Apple could be looking at 15-20 million in lost iPhone shipments for the next year.
And so, as I snuck into an article back on August 7th, I just want to re-up my thought that Apple could also be a name that winds up being a black swan for the market.
It has had an incredible 20 year run, there is no denying that. But, for the first time since then, I’ve felt like they are at the end of several chapters: Jony Ive is out, Tim Cook is going to wind up stepping down sooner, instead of later, they have officially run out of innovation runway, barring a miracle from...(READ THIS FULL PIECE HERE).
