AfD Tops Polls For First Time In History As Merz's Public Support For Chancellor Plummets

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has become the most popular party nationwide for the first time in its history, edging past the CDU/CSU in the latest Ipsos poll.

The survey, conducted April 4–5, 2025, shows the AfD at 25 percent, just ahead of the CDU/CSU at 24 percent. The polling marks a dramatic turnaround since February’s federal election, when the Christian Democrats attained 29 percent and the AfD came second, four points behind.

Meanwhile, the SPD holds 15 percent, and both the Greens and the Left Party are at 11 percent each.

These numbers come amid growing dissatisfaction with CDU leader Friedrich Merz. According to a separate Forsa poll for RTL and ntv, only 32 percent of Germans believe Merz is suited for the office of chancellor, while 60 percent say he is not. This marks a steep decline from early March, when 40 percent still had confidence in him.

Merz’s numbers are even worse in East Germany, where just 19 percent see him as a good future chancellor, compared to 34 percent in the West. Only among Union voters does Merz enjoy solid support, with 69 percent considering him a strong candidate. Among supporters of other parties, skepticism is widespread: 69 percent of SPD voters, 71 percent of Green voters, and 84 percent of AfD voters say Merz is unfit for the role. Among Left Party voters, that number climbs to 85 percent.

“The majority of voters doubt that the black-red agreement is moving in the right direction,” said Hermann Binkert, head of the INSA polling institute, referring to ongoing negotiations over a possible Grand Coalition between the CDU and SPD.

Voter frustration is also being stoked by the controversial €500 billion investment fund, approved with backing from the CDU, SPD, and Greens. Viewed as a signal of increased spending and mounting debt, the fund has intensified criticism of the political establishment.

FDP senior figure Wolfgang Kubicki recently issued a warning to Germany’s legacy parties, saying the country is on the verge of a political revolution. “An AfD chancellor is closer than we think,” Kubicki said. “The vast majority of German citizens have recently voted somehow right-wing. Now, however, they threaten to get left-wing politics. That can’t go on for much longer.”

Following February’s election result, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel accused Merz of betraying his voters by cozying up to left-wing parties.

“If the CDU commits electoral fraud against its own voters by forming a coalition with the left, the next election will come sooner than you think,” she warned. “Then, we will overtake the CDU as the strongest force!”

Coalition talks between the SPD and the CDU continued long into the night on Tuesday, with an announcement on the next federal government expected in the coming days.

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