America's Next Proxy War Against Russia

No Longer A Conspiracy Theory

As David Sacks wrote on X on Sunday, after yesterday's bombshell New York Times article, the idea that the CIA was fighting a secret war against Russia in the Ukraine is no longer a conspiracy theory. 

As Zero Hedge points out, the New York Times article essentially backs up Russian President Vladimir Putin's claim that the U.S. was working to turn the Ukraine against it. Now a pseudonymous analyst on X suggests that the U.S. is in the early stages of running the Ukraine playbook against Russia in another ex-Soviet state, Kazakhstan. We've shared that analyst's post below. Following that, we'll close a couple of quick investing notes, one for conservative investors, and one for traders. 

Running The Ukraine Playbook In Kazakhstan 

 [Emphasis and parenthetical comments ours]

While the war in Ukraine is far from over in Kazakhstan very similar activity is taking place to what happened in Ukraine since 1991.

The US is financing local nationalists, journalists, public figures via grants.

Promoting same victimhood history, with a lot of focus on the famine in the region, just as Ukraine .

Completely ignoring millions of ethnic Russians that were affected in Russia at the same time. [The Russian podcasters RWApodcast have made the same point regarding the Holodomor in the Ukraine in the 1930s:

]

Kazakh nationalists record videos for social media where they bully ethnic Russians that don't speak the Kazakh language. Telling them to go back to Russia despite the fact that they were born in Kazakhstan and are citizens of the country.

There is also some involvement in the region from Turkey to promote Pan-Turkism.

Combined with the efforts of the US to turn the country another anti-Russia region a war in the future is not so far-fetched.

Ethnic Kazakh population by percentage on the map.

The top part is North Kazakhstan where ethnic Russians still outnumber the Kazakhs despite immigration to Russia since 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union [Ethnic Russians comprise about 15% of Kazakhstan's population]. 

The region also still has a large presence of Volga Germans that were deported from Saratov region, however many have also left for Germany [This deportation was part of the persecution of ethnic Germans in the Soviet Union during World War II. Our friend Dr. Otto Paul is a leading scholar of this period, and you can download his paper on it here 

]

It's right on the border with Russia in Siberia, in case of a war crossing it would take less effort than Ukrainian border as it's very lightly protected by a few border posts.

Russia would size all of North Kazakhstan with a population of around 550,000 of which only 200,000 are ethnic Kazakhs.

Potentially Karaganda Region in Central Kazakhstan, country's largest region, major center for coal mining with 1,350,000 population.

Despite seemingly good relations between Russian and Kazakh leaderships there are no signs of local authorities cracking down on nationalists which could very well lead the country on the same path as Ukraine.

Same as with Euromaidan in Ukraine a major event could lead to unpredictable consequences.

Just a month before the invasion of Ukraine in January 2022 there was unrest in Kazakhstan, 5 members of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) headed by Russia dispatched peacekeeping forces to the country. 

A Leading Uranium Producer

Kazakhstan is second in terms of uranium resources after Australia but ranks first in uranium production.

Kazakhstan has huge amount of natural resources, such for example as chromite or uranium, some of the largest reserves in the world.

The country is third in the world in terms of titanium production, seventh for zinc, eighth for lead and eleventh for gold.

This Increases The Risks For Kazakhstan 

A conflict here could be a welcome challenge for Russia.

The region is much more important that highly touted potential new conflicts in Moldova or Georgia.

If the country allows itself to become a pawn in geopolitical games against Russia while being devoured from inside by nationalism the prospect of a conflict could be very high.

The country will need serious leadership that understands these risks.

As cynical as it is Russian leadership doesn't mind Kazakh nationalists oppressing Russians, Ukrainians or Germans in the country.

Plenty of videos on Kazakh social media accounts then making their way for people in Russia to see.

Why?

It will be easy to exploit if the country takes too much of a sharp turn torwards the US/UK and against Russia.

That will be up to local authorities to crack down on it for own benefit and safety as not to get a joint Russia-China special military operation in the future with the two splitting Kazakhstan in half.

Two Quick Investing Notes 

Hopefully, Global Thinker's post above will be a wake up call for Kazakh elites, and they'll be able to avoid the Ukraine's fate. Let's wrap this up with our two investing notes, for conservative investors and traders. 

For Conservative Investors

We've mentioned our hedged portfolio system before, where you enter the dollar amount you're looking to invest, the maximum drawdown you're willing to risk, and the Portfolio Armor web app presents you with a hedged portfolio designed to maximize your returns while strictly limiting your risk per your specifications. The most recent returns for this system have been surprisingly strong. 

You can see an interactive version of that chart here. 

For Traders

Last week, we made money on three of our four earnings trade exits. 

1. Call spread on Lucid Motors (LCID -1.95%↓). Entered at a net debit of $0.24 on 2/20/2024; expired worthless on 2/23/2024. Loss: 100%.

2. Call spread on Wayfair (W 6.21%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.40 on 2/20/2024; exited at a net credit of $0.50 on 2/22/2024. Profit: 25%.

3. Call spread on Carvana (CVNA 8.64%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.90 on 8/21/2024; exited at a net credit of $1.98 on 2/23/2024. Profit: 120%.

4. Call spread on Nvidia (NVDA 6.15%↑). Entered at a net debit of $2.10 on 2/20/2024; exited at a net credit of $4.74 on 2/22/2024. Profit: 126%.

We have three trades teed up for today, on companies reporting after the close and before tomorrow's open: one bullish trade, and two bearish trades. If you'd like a heads up when we place those trades, feel free to subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below. 

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