The under-5 population is declining twice as fast in large urban counties
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American families with young children are leaving urban cities in high numbers, which might indicate urban progressive policies are to blame, according to a recent report in The Atlantic and analysis by a Manhattan Institute scholar.
The Atlantic's Derek Thompson took aim last week at vice presidential candidate JD Vance's pronatalist commentary, but admitted progressives have a "family problem" that has less to do with the individual decision not to have children and more to do with the family policies of large Democratic cities and politicians.
The under-5 population is declining twice as fast in large urban counties when compared to other parts of the country, according to a new analysis of census data by Connor O’Brien, a policy analyst at the Economic Innovation Group think tank.
The number of younger children declined by nearly 20 percent in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx, and it fell by double-digit percentage points in the counties that make up all or most of Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and St. Louis between 2020 and 2023, according to the data, the Atlantic reported.
A woman pushing a stroller while walking on the boardwalk in Long Beach, New York on November 13, 2019. (Getty Images)
"These places ought to be advertisements for what the modern progressive movement can achieve without meddlesome conservatism getting in the way, at the local or state level," The Atlantic wrote in its piece. "If progressives want to sell their cause to the masses, they should be able to say: Elect us, and we’ll make America more like Oakland. Or Brooklyn. Or suburban Detroit. If they can’t make that argument, that’s a problem."
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The under-5 population is still declining twice as fast in large urban counties as it is elsewhere, according to O’Brien’s census analysis. In 20 years, several counties that include places like Manhattan, Brooklyn, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco, are expected to lose 50% of the under-5 population.
After the 2008 financial crisis, young, high-income, college-educated Whites were moving into the cities as multiracial families with children moved out, The Atlantic reported. The trend was exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, from the early 1980s to the 2020s, the number of women under 40 who have never given birth has doubled.
But, the data can't be chalked up to the COVID-19 pandemic or the declining birthrate alone, the Atlantic reported; arguing cities in red states have built houses and contained child-care inflation more effectively than cities in blue states.
"I’m deeply worried about a family-exodus doom loop," O’Brien told The Atlantic. "When the population of young kids in a city falls 10 or 20 percent in just a few years, that’s a potential political earthquake. Almost overnight, there are fewer parents around to fight for better schools, local playgrounds, or all the other mundane amenities families care about."
New York City skyline. (Fox News Photo/Joshua Comins)
Manhattan Institute fellow Robert VerBruggen told Fox News Digital that the data is consistent with the findings of a similar report conducted by the Manhattan Institute last year, which concluded that America’s major cities are increasingly childless. VerBruggen said the trend is especially noteworthy because American cities were already relatively light on kids even before the current exodus.
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"Kids and parents are losing access to some of the nation's most economically and socially vibrant places, which in turn are losing access to the basic human experience of, well, being around children," VerBruggen said. "To be sure, some drivers of this phenomenon are beyond cities' control."
"For example, thanks to the rise of work-from-home, fewer people are required to live in a big city as a condition of employment. Many workers can now have a big-city job and a big house with a yard," he added.
But, VerBruggen said there are a lot of things cities could do to attract families.
"For one thing, it's simply too expensive to live in the nation's most prosperous metros – even for those who love city life and don't mind density," he said. "Cost of living correlates strongly with families' migration decisions."
Children on playground. (iStock)
Housing is a major indicator of affordability and one of the main reasons people move; to have a newer, better or larger house or apartment, according to Census data. But, despite that, the percentage of movers reporting housing unit upgrades declined.
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The U.S. economy is facing a housing affordability crisis that is making it difficult for younger generations to become homeowners amid high mortgage rates and expensive construction materials.
Home prices reached a new record in May amid the ongoing housing shortage. Now, cities in red states are building more housing than those in blue states, according to the Atlantic. Expensive housing leads to high costs for local services, like childcare, and a shortage of workers willing to work for lower wages.
"Cities need to build more housing, including housing specifically for families, to bring those prices down," VerBruggen said. "They also must control disorder, offer families educational choice, and make public areas more accessible to kids."
Kendall Tietz is a writer with Fox News Digital.
