BEIRUT, Lebanon, Aug. 30 (UPI) — Israel and Hezbollah, engaged in nearly 11 months of destructive, cross-border confrontation triggered by the Gaza war, have opted for avoiding an all-out war that would be devastating for both.
But the risk of escalation remains in the absence of a Gaza cease-fire and an agreement to pacify its border front, analysts and experts said.
Both parties claimed victory Aug. 25, when Hezbollah launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel to avenge the July 30 assassination of its senior military commander, Fouad Shukr.
Israel, on its part, carried out large-scale preemptive strikes that allegedly foiled the group’s plans to hit intelligence and military targets near Tel Aviv. The short confrontation on that day seemed satisfactory, allowing a return to “business as usual” and rules of engagement in place since Oct. 8.
Was it an orchestrated retaliation like Iran’s large-scale attacks on Israel last April to avenge the killing of its senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and six other officers in a strike against the Iranian consulate in Damascus? That is hard to confirm.
Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai, explained that in case Israel was aware of the Hezbollah revengeful strikes and preempted them, that means it “has strongly breached Hezbollah intelligence and is able to detect all its movement.”
Losing element of surprise
Kahwaji argued that by losing “the element of surprise,” Hezbollah no longer can launch “successful attacks” on Israel, and the Israeli preemptions reduced the effectiveness of its strikes.
“If this was orchestrated like the Iran April attack, then Hezbollah has agreed to give up its deterrence because we saw the magnitude of the Israeli pre-emption,” he told UPI. “It showed that Israel has regained its deterrence and Hezbollah has decided just not to retaliate, not to do anything and it wants to end this.”
It was clear that Hezbollah and its patron, Iran, were doing all they can to prevent sliding into an all-out war, according to the analysts who referred to intense western diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and avoid miscalculations.
“The missing information was on the Israeli side,” a western diplomatic source in Beirut told UPI. “The risk of escalation was on the Israeli side, absolutely not on the [Tehran-led] axis of resistance.”
Israel, too, has good reasons to avoid a wide-scale conflict, at least for now. Its soldiers have been fighting on two fronts since the Palestinian Hamas movement launched “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” on Oct. 7, without being able to destroy Hamas and secure the release of 109 Israelis remaining captive in Gaza.
They have also failed to push Hezbollah fighters away from the Lebanese-Israeli border to allow the safe return of 80,000 displaced to northern Israel.
Failure to achieve cease-fire
No one expected this war to go on that long amid the continuous failure of achieving a cease-fire in Gaza, not to say a political solution, the analysts argued. Hezbollah, which joined the fight as a “support front” Oct. 8, has tied the cessation of its military operations to the Gaza cease-fire.
“Hezbollah is clearly worn out of this lengthy confrontation. Israelis are also exhausted,” Kahwaji said.
The cost of an all-out war on Israel and Lebanon may have been a factor in avoiding such an uncontrollable escalation with devastating consequences.
Bankrupt Lebanon already is in a mess and still struggling to overcome a financial crisis that started in October 2019.
Its collapse, described as the world’s worst since the mid-19th century, has left its population in dire living conditions. Deep political divisions have also been preventing the election of a new president and the implementation of comprehensive reforms.
The recent round of confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel has added to the Lebanese ordeals.
At least 130 civilians have been killed since last October. According to U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator in Lebanon Imran Riza, more than 110, 000 people have been displaced from the border villages and a further 150,000 remain within 10 kilometers of the U.N.-patrolled frontier in areas of south Lebanon, impacted daily by Israeli shelling and airstrikes.
Losses in the millions each day
While it is still early to give an exact account on the extent of damage and economic losses, Mahmoud Jebai, a Lebanese economic expert, estimated the “cost on the Lebanese economy at $6 million to $7 million a day in indirect losses, constituting nearly 10% of the GDP.”
Jebai explained that the economic losses increased after the assassination of Hezbollah senior military commander Fouad Shukr in an Israeli strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Hezbollah’s stronghold.
“The great majority of [Lebanese] immigrants and tourists left the country during the month of August, resulting in additional losses of $500 million to $600 million,” he told UPI.
More inhabitants in south Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs have also left their homes for more secure areas following Shukr’s killing and out of fear of a wide-scale war.
Rents soar
“Renting an apartment in more secure areas reached $1,500 to $2,500 per month, and this constitutes a high cost on the displaced,” Jebai said, noting that Hezbollah has been covering most of the displaced housing, food and medical needs at an estimated $350 to $400 per month for house rental.
He, however, warned that in case of a wide-scale war, the indirect economic losses could increase to $30 to $40 million and total economic losses to $100 million a day.
“Hezbollah is taking that into consideration, for Lebanon cannot sustain more financial, economic, social, security and military pressures, thus the hope for an end of the Gaza war as soon as possible.”
Israel’s economy also is struggling, with its tourism sector suffering most, according to Israeli reports.
“In the event of an all-out war, neither Lebanon nor Israel could sustain more losses,” Jebai said.
However, the ongoing “war of attrition” between the two parties is to continue until the U.S. presidential elections in November or hopefully a cease-fire is in place for Gaza.
“There is this waiting of the U.S. elections to change the scene … to see if there will be a change or not,” said the western diplomatic source. “Hezbollah would stop the war on the next day of the Gaza cease-fire, but this is not clear on the Israeli side.”
Attempt to push Hezbollah fighters away
What Israel wants is to push Hezbollah fighters away from its borders by 10 to 12 kilometers, prevent them from using the area to launch missiles or infiltrate its northern border similar to the Hamas attack Oct. 7. The goal is to secure the return and safe stay of its 80,000 inhabitants displaced from the northern region.
The diplomatic source argued that the Hezbollah-Israel border conflict “is easier to solve compared to the complexities of the Palestinian problem and the situation in Gaza.”
The full implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, could restore calm again on the border with the help of 10,000 U.N. peacekeepers and Lebanese Army units.
But that would mean Israel must end its violations of Lebanon’s air space and sovereignty, as well as resolving territorial disputes over 13 sites along the border claimed by Lebanon. It also means that Iran has to consent to any arrangement concerning Lebanon.
“There was a status-quo on the border which guaranteed [a kind] of peace from 2006 to October 2023, but not a lasting peace,” the source said. The challenge today is to secure an arrangement “to spare Lebanon and Israel another confrontation after few years.”
