Trump's Secret Weapon: His Son Barron
On Friday, President Trump appeared on his biggest podcast yet, The Joe Rogan Experience. ZeroHedge's recap of the episode and reactions to it noted that Trump's youngest son, Barron, has been advising him on his podcast strategy.
One account on X speculated that Trump's embrace of podcasts this year could prove as effective as Obama's use of social media in 2008.
The full embrace of podcasts is to 2024 what social media was to Obama in 2008 and meme magic for Trump in 2016.
— Tho Bishop (@ThoBishop) October 26, 2024
From now on, no candidate who can't be a compelling guest will ever be a viable POTUS candidate.
Barron Trump has already changed American politics forever. https://t.co/XGqldTtnde
I think he may be right.
The Democrats have invested a lot of time in characterizing Trump as, variously, senile, a bully, the next Hitler, etc. The more voters see and hear Trump being Trump, the more they realize those characterizations are all lies. No senile candidate could speak extemporaneously, without notes or aides, for three hours straight.
Let's try to make some money on it.
Betting On The Election
I’ve used PredictIt in the past to bet on election outcomes, and I currently have a bet on Trump to win the election there at 44 cents (winning PredictIt shares cash out at $1).
PredictIt has two downsides though:
Your maximum bet is capped at $850.
PredictIt takes a 5% fee when you withdraw funds.
I had signed up for Kalshi a couple of months ago, but they didn't offer election betting then. Now they do. And they don't cap your bets at $850, or take any fees currently. It looks like they're using venture capital money to focus on expanding their number of users rather than making money at this point. They're even giving you a free $25 to wager if you bet $100 there.
The problem is the price of betting on Trump has gone up--as of this writing, he's now at 61% to win the election, meaning you would have to bet $0.61 on Trump to win $1.
A Few Lower-Priced Bets
If Trump does run away with the election, here are a few lower-priced bets that could win for us (I have money on all of these):
1) Trump to win Virginia at 17 cents.
2) Trump to win Minnesota at 14 cents.
3) Republican sweep at 44 cents.
Risk-On In The Meantime
In between now and the election, it looks like it may be risk-on with respect to stocks. We had a few winners on earnings trades last week...
Call spread on Carpenter Technology (CRS -1.51%↓). Entered at a net debit of $1.60 on 8/27/2024; exited at a net credit of $2.45 on 10/24/2024. Profit: 53%.
Call spread on Deckers Outdoor (DECK -2.23%↓). Entered at a net debit of $0.83 on 10/16/2024; exited at a net credit of $1.70 on 10/25/2024. Profit: 105%.
Call spread on Tesla (TSLA 8.44%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.83 on 10/14/2024; exited at a net credit of $2.96 on 10/24/2024. Profit: 196%.
And we were fortunate enough that Israel's air strikes on Iran happened after the market closed on Friday, Barring something like that happening during market hours next week, we ought to have opportunities for more earnings trades before the election.
If you'd like a heads up when we place our next one, you can subscribe to the Portfolio Armor trading Substack/occasional email list below.
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