The Economic Panic of the Pundit Class
The frustration of the pundit class with the dismal opinion of the American electorate on the U.S. economy is reaching a fever pitch.
The most recent New York Times/Siena poll found that 75 percent of likely voters rated the economy either “poor” or “fair.” Forty-seven percent say it is “poor,” and 28 percent said “only fair.” Just three percent described the economy as “excellent,” and another 21 percent chose to describe the economy as “good.”
This is not an outlier. The numbers from the Economist/YouGov poll released Wednesday are almost identical: five percent say economic conditions are excellent, 23 percent say they are good, 29 percent say they are only fair, and 40 percent say they are poor.
Gallup’s polls tell the same story. Three percent rate the economy as excellent. Nineteen percent rate it as good. Twenty-nine percent rate conditions as only fair. Forty-eight percent say the economy is poor.
Liberal economists and economic opinion writers are losing their minds over this, insisting that the American people should not believe their lying eyes.
“The U.S. economy is just doing spectacularly well,” the Washington Post‘s Catherine Rampell, usually a perceptive and sober voice of reason against Democrat myth-making on things like Greedflation, wrote in a recent column.
“It’s hard to overstate just how good recent economic numbers have been,” Paul Krugman wrote this week, claiming that the state of the economy is a vindication of Bidenomics.
Mark Zandi, of Moody’s Analytics, recently said that he thinks “the economy is about as good as it gets.”
Stephanie Kelton, an adviser to the far-left of the Democratic Party and a leader of the Modern Monetary Theory school of economics, said Wednesday that this is the best economy since the 1980s.
A Rosy View Out of Sync with America
It’s hard to overstate just how outlandish this view really is. Although Krugman and Rampell write as if it is only Republicans who are down on the economy, few Democrats share their view that the economy is doing spectacularly well. According to the New York Times/Siena poll, just five percent of Democrats describe the economy as “excellent” and just two percent of independents do.
Democrats are much more likely to describe the economy as “good” (43 percent), but slightly more than a third say it is only fair, according to Times/Siena. Seventeen percent say economic conditions are “poor.”
Independents take an even dimmer view. Just 17 percent say the economy is “good,” while 30 percent say it is only “fair” and 50 percent say it is “poor.”
What’s more, the view of American voters has not changed much over the past six months. Back in May, the Times/Siena poll found the same three percent describing the economy as “excellent,” 20 percent describing it as “good,” 27 percent as only “fair,” and 49 percent as “poor.” The Democrat share saying the economy is “excellent” is actually slightly lower now than the seven percent registered in April (although this is probably just statistical noise), while the independent share is exactly the same.
The Economy Is the Top Issue This Election
And the economy is still the dominant issue for voters. According to the Times/Siena poll, 28 percent of likely voters rate the economy as the top issue, twice as many as those who say abortion (the second most popular choice) is their top issue. Another six percent say inflation is the top issue. And nearly 75 percent say that they have cut back on groceries in the last year because of cost.
Gallup’s polling found that 52 percent say the candidates’ positions on the economy are an “extremely important” influence on their vote, making it the only issue that has the majority of the public rating it that important. Another 38 percent say the issue of the economy is “very important,” which means the issue could be a significant factor to nine in 10 voters.
Vice President Kamala Harris delivers on the one-year anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act on August 15, 2023, in Seattle. (Official White House Photo by Polly Irungu)
Americans Prefer Trumponomics to Kamalanomics
Trump continues to have an advantage over Harris on the economy. The Times/Siena poll gives Trump a four point advantage, with 52 percent saying they think Trump will be better on the economy and 48 percent saying Harris will be better. Gallup is even better for Trump, at 54 percent to 45 percent.
A Reuter/IPSOS poll goes into even more detail, finding that Trump has an advantage on each aspect of the economy they asked about. On the economy generally, Trump has a nine point lead. On jobs, Trump has a seven point lead. On the cost of living, a six point lead. On taxes, a four point lead. On leaving Americans better off financially, a nine point lead. On the stock market, a 15 point lead.
Gallup recently pointed out that the party seen best on the top-of-mind issue for voters almost always wins:
This measure has been highly predictive of election outcomes in Gallup trends dating back to 1948. The party rated as better at handling the most important problem has won all but three presidential elections since that year. The question was not asked in 2000, and the two parties tied in 1980, when inflation was the top issue. The only time the measure was out of sync with the outcome was in 1948, when Americans believed the Republican Party was better able to handle the most important problem (international issues) but returned Democratic incumbent Harry Truman to office.
No wonder the Democrats and their supporters in the media and the economics profession are starting to panic.
