Economic Pessimism Among Younger Voters
This year’s presidential election will likely be the first in which Baby Boomers are not a generational majority. They will be outnumbered by Gen Z and Millennials, who are very unhappy with the state of the economy.
Slightly over 50 percent of registered voters under the age of 30 say the state of the economy is getting worse, according to the most recent polling by YouGov for the Economist. That’s lower than the 48.2 percent of the overall population of registered voters. Just 18.6 percent of the under 30s say the economy is getting better.
If we move up to include the Millennials, now between 28 and 43 years old, the figures are a bit less dire. Around 44.5 percent of voters between 30 and 44 say the economy is getting worse, and 20.9 percent say the economy is getting better.
Impact on Biden’s Political Standing
The economic pessimism among younger voters poses a political problem for Joe Biden. Younger voters are traditionally a crucial voting block for Democrats. Biden won the under 30 vote by 20 points in 2020 and the 30 to 44-year-old vote by double digits. In the spring of 2020, Biden was up by 30 points among under 30 year olds most likely to vote, according to the Harvard Youth Poll. Now that lead has dropped to 19 percent.
Back in 2020, Biden led Trump among all 18 to 30-year-old Americans by 23 points. This spring’s Harvard Youth Poll has that lead down to just eight points.
There’s also a large enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden’s younger supporters. Three quarters of Trump’s younger supporters say they enthusiastically support their candidate. Only 44 percent of Biden’s younger supporters say they’re enthusiastic.
Gen Z and Millennial voters are slightly more likely to say that inflation is the single most important issue to them, at 28 percent for both the under 30 group and the 30 to 44 group, according to the YouGov poll. For voters between 45 and 64, 26 percent have inflation as the most important issue. Only 20 percent of over 65 year old registered voters agree (unfortunately for Biden, another 20 percent of the older demographic says immigration is the most important issue).
Biden’s Performance on Inflation and the Economy
So, how is Biden doing on this issue that is so important to younger voters? In a word: miserably. Just 27 percent of under 30s say they approve of Biden’s handling of inflation—and 57 percent disapprove. Among 30 to 44 year olds, Biden gets a higher approval rating on inflation at 37 percent but the same 57 percent disapproval.
The second most popular choice for top issue among under 30s is jobs and the economy, at 13 percent, putting it ahead of abortion (12 percent), health care (seven percent), and climate change (seven percent). Among the 30 to 44 year olds, jobs and economy is ranked first by 15 percent, followed by health care at 12 percent, abortion at seven percent, and climate change at seven percent.
President Joe Biden delivers a speech on Bidenomics on September 14, 2023, at Prince George’s Community College in Largo, Maryland. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz via Flickr)
Unemployment Rates and Younger Workers
Biden’s approval ratings on jobs and the economy are better but not as good as you might expect given the very low unemployment numbers and the unexpectedly strong job gains over the past year. He gets the approving nod from 34 percent of 18 to 29 year olds and 41 percent of 30 to 44 year olds. But Biden’s negatives are still high, at 48 percent among the under 30s and 49 percent among the 30 to 44s.
One reason Biden might be so far underwater on jobs and the economy with Gen Z and Millennials is that younger Americans have not seen as much benefit from the relatively hot jobs market as older workers. The unemployment rate among 20 to 24 year olds is 7.9 percent, versus four percent for the population as a whole. It was only that high under Trump for a single month, in February 2016, prior to the pandemic.
For Americans between 25 and 34 years old, the unemployment rate is 4.1 percent. While nowhere near as high as the under 25 rate, this contrasts unfavorably with the unemployment rate of older workers. Those between 35 and 44 have an unemployment rate of 3.3 percent. Those between 45 and 54 have an unemployment rate of 2.5 percent. And older workers are at 2.7 percent. So, it is not surprising that the younger demographic groups are not overjoyed at Biden’s performance on jobs and the economy.
A Path Forward from Ever Rising Debt?
There could be a hidden silver lining in all of this youth dissatisfaction with the economy and especially inflation. It suggests that the widespread view that we may not be able to rein in the budget deficits of the last few years could be wrong. The rising tide of younger voters has felt the devastating effects of high inflation and that may lead to a demand for elected officials to practice some fiscal restraint.
A repudiation of Biden’s fiscal excesses this November would likely send a message that attempting to buy off the electorate with sky-high deficit spending is not a winning strategy.
