When Donald Trump pledged to impose crippling tariffs on Canadian imports, he blamed Ottawa for failing to stem the flow of fentanyl into the United States.
Canadian authorities concede the country has likely become a net exporter of the synthetic opioid that is 50 times more potent than heroin.
But experts cast doubt on the president-elect’s suggestion that Canada is a major contributor to drug problems in the US.
Production rising
According to Canada’s federal police specialized unit on organized crime, domestic production and distribution of fentanyl have increased over the last five years.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police blame the trend on organized crime groups.
Production labs are also spreading, the RCMP’s says.
In October, RCMP officers in British Columbia dismantled what they described as “the largest and most sophisticated fentanyl and methamphetamine drug superlab in Canada,” seizing an estimated 95.5 million doses of potentially lethal fentanyl.
Canadian crime groups previously imported fentanyl as a finished product.
But University of Montreal criminology professor Valentin Pereda said the fentanyl consumed in Canada is now “produced in Canada.”
There is also a production surplus, he added.
Experts say the Canadian production increase is likely tied to stricter rules imposed by China in 2019 to restrict the fentanyl trade.
But Canada’s foreign ministry has also noted that “China continues to be listed as the main source country for a variety of precursor chemicals intended for the illegal production of drugs in Canada and some illegal drugs smuggled into Canada.”
Net exporter
The foreign ministry also said there is evidence that Canada’s production spike has made it a net fentanyl exporter.
“Seizures of Canada-sourced fentanyl in places like the US and Australia suggest that domestic production is likely exceeding domestic demand, and that Canada is now a source (and transit) country for fentanyl to some markets.”
Pereda said Canadian-produced fentanyl makes its way to East Asia and New Zealand, in addition to the US and Australia, but noted these exports are “small quantities.”
Canadian drug traffickers do not rival the export capacity of criminal groups in Mexico or Colombia, he added.
‘Minimal’ cross border traffic
The amount of Canadian-produced fentanyl seized at the US border remains small.
US border agents seized a total of 19.5 kilograms (43 pounds) from September 2023 to September 2024, compared to 9,500 kg coming from Mexico over the same period.
Even small amounts of fentanyl can kill and US authorities recorded more than 70,000 overdose deaths from the drug in 2023.
But Trump’s concerns about Canada’s role in that crisis are “hyperbolic,” said Western University criminologist Laura Huey.
“You already have very well-organized, robust Mexican manufacturing (and) distribution networks in the US that (are) more than capable of over-producing synthetic drugs,” she explained.
If any Canadian groups were trying to cut into that market, “one would expect some increase in (organized crime) or gang violence as changes in markets take place,” she said.
“We’re not seeing that.”
