In a quaint restaurant on the outskirts of Canada’s capital, Sandra McCormack spent a recent morning talking politics with friends in an area that is suddenly in the political spotlight.
The area’s neighboring electoral districts — Carleton and Nepean — are starkly different: Carleton is largely rural, picturesque and dotted with small farms, while Nepean is a suburban Ottawa neighborhood, packed with strip malls and single family homes.
But the districts have something in common ahead of Canada’s April 28 election — one of them will elect the next prime minister.
The Liberal Party leader, Prime Minister Mark Carney, is running in Nepean, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is the candidate for Carleton.
Poilievre was born in the western city of Calgary, entered politics after university, and has represented Carleton in parliament since 2004.
Over breakfast in Carleton’s Manotick area, the 77-year-old McCormack recalled the first campaign of the Tory leader, known locally as just Pierre.
“He looked like a 15-year-old,” she told AFP.
Poilievre, now 45, may be a political fixture in Carleton but this election is unlike anything he’s experienced.
He became the Conservative leader in 2022, after Canada’s last election.
He built support through 2023 and 2024 attacking former prime minister Justin Trudeau and, at the start of this year, polls indicated he would lead the Tories back into power after a decade in opposition.
But Trudeau’s departure in favour of Carney and the uncertainty gripping Canada brought on by President Donald Trump’s trade war and annexation threats have upended the race.
Most polls currently give Carney a lead.
“We normally talk about hockey, but everybody’s talking about politics nowadays because there’s an important election going on,” McCormack said.
Down the road at a busy cafe, Mel Roberts, 66, sipped his morning coffee while reading the newspaper.
“Pierre has a huge following in this area,” he told AFP, crediting Poilievre with speaking to local libertarian values.
His wife, Roberts admits in a hushed tone, is one of Manotick’s few Liberals. Their divergent political views have not led to either sleeping on the couch, “but there’s been a few close calls,” he added with a chuckle.
– Best to fight Trump –
A two-lane road divides Carleton from Carney’s Nepean district. There are blue Poilievre signs on one side and red Carney placards on the other.
Carney, who replaced Trudeau on March 14, has never served in parliament or held elected office. He was born in Fort Smith, about 4,500 kilometers (2,700 miles) from Nepean and raised in the western city of Edmonton.
It wasn’t clear which district Carney would contest until days before he called the election.
The 60-year-old spent the early part of his career in global financial capitals as an investment banker with Goldman Sachs. He then led the Bank of Canada and Bank of England.
But despite his scant local ties, voters said Carney’s economic experience is attractive.
“I think that Carney, being an economist, is better suited to deal with Trump,” said William Dubroy, 75, shopping at a Nepean bulk store.
Fellow shopper Andrea Doyle said she’s “excited for him to become the next prime minister.”
‘Five-minute connection’
Carney’s campaign office is in a Nepean strip mall, where volunteers signed a pair of posters on the wall with “Elbows Up,” a hockey inspired anti-Trump Canadian rallying cry.
With the sun going down, volunteers fueled by coffee and samosas fanned out carrying Carney leaflets.
Canvasser Tyler Watt, a 34-year-old nurse, got a warm greeting at the first house on a quiet, lush street with hockey nets in the driveway.
A woman ran out of another residence asking if Carney was there. She said she wanted to invite him in for dinner. A few houses over a man asked for a Carney lawn sign.
Voters told canvassers they remained concerned about high living costs, an issue that drove Trudeau’s unpopularity and helped Poilievre’s polling surge last year.
But countering Trump now topped those concerns.
Watt said he’s averaging 20,000 steps a day canvassing, but insisted it was worth every stride.
“In this world where politics seems so divisive, when you’re at the door, telling people why they should support your candidate, it’s humanizing and it has a big impact.”
“That five-to-15-minute connection at the door is the most critical thing in any election.”
